Chronicle of the Crisis

On October 23 a Ninth Circuit panel ruled 2-1 that Donald Trump's decision to federalize the California National Guard in June 2025, during protests against ICE raids in Los Angeles, was unlawful. The opinion by Judge Jennifer Sung affirms District Judge Charles Breyer's preliminary injunction in Newsom v. Trump and rejects the government's claim that the city was in a state of "rebellion or danger of rebellion," the statutory trigger (10 U.S.C. § 12406) for calling up troops without the governor's consent.

"A determination that the conditions in Los Angeles on June 7, 2025, constituted 'a rebellion or danger of rebellion' does not reflect a colorable assessment within a range of honest judgment," Sung wrote. In 2025 the same court had sided with Trump at the stay stage; what changed the landscape was the Supreme Court's December 2025 decision, 6-3, holding the federalization of the Illinois Guard illegal. Governor Gavin Newsom's office called the ruling a finding of a "violation of the constitutional separation of powers." Meanwhile in Washington, on October 14, the D.C. Circuit (Judges Pillard, Garcia and Rogers) heard arguments on the deployment in the capital, now in its 15th month with about 2,900 troops still on duty and a mobilization the Pentagon has extended to January 2029; Judge Cornelia Pillard asked the government how its theory was "not federalization and therefore running up against" the Posse Comitatus Act.

The ruling closes a year of litigation and draws a line around the president's power to send soldiers into cities over the objection of the states: "rebellion" is not a word the executive can utter at will without judicial review. The facts on the ground remain, however: the troops stayed in Los Angeles for months and remain in Washington while courts deliberate, and the final round is headed to the Supreme Court.

The Justice Department will deploy roughly 1,000 federal election monitors across all 50 states on midterm Election Day, up from 388 in 2022. In Michigan the monitors are headed to Detroit, East Lansing, Flint, Grand Rapids, Hamtramck, Lansing and Warren; in Indiana to Marion (Indianapolis) and Lake counties; in Colorado to Adams County; others are planned for Utah and, at the request of state Republican parties, California and New Jersey. For the first time, federal prosecutors will serve as monitors, reversing a long-standing Department rule.

Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold called the Department "hostile" to free and fair elections and said she saw no "reasonable basis" for the deployment. Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab, a Republican, said monitors may enter polling places but must stay behind the voter ID checkpoint. David Becker, a former Civil Rights Division attorney, called the scale "not normal," noting that the Department lacks "blanket authority" and must follow state and local rules. A senior official said monitors will not check voters' citizenship and that any enforcement would come after the election, and declined to say whether the president had been briefed on the operation.

Federal poll monitoring was born with the Voting Rights Act to protect minority voters; it is now being deployed by an administration that has made election fraud, and noncitizen voting in particular, a centerpiece of its campaign. Putting prosecutors in polling places in battleground states and Democratic-leaning cities turns a safeguard into a signal of pressure on local administrators, and shifts the center of gravity of American elections from the states to the national government.

On October 23 Brent crude briefly topped $117 a barrel, the highest level since the US-Iran war began on February 28; it had been under $97 at the start of the month. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed seven attacks on tankers in the Gulf in a single day (four hit by projectiles, three by mines), none independently confirmed; CNBC reported that at least nine commercial ships had been attacked near Hormuz since October 11 and that flows through the Strait had fallen to 9.4 million barrels a day, about 70% of the prewar level according to Kpler.

Trump accused Iran of "doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil" ahead of November 3 and said the United States "could take the whole country," while his UN ambassador Mike Waltz told the Financial Times the war could last another year: "One would hope that they'll come to the table in a meaningful way before that." Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack did not rule out a strike as early as that weekend, even though Trump had said there would be none before the midterms. The war, launched with joint US-Israeli strikes, saw a ceasefire on April 7 and a memorandum in June before fighting resumed in July; in April House Republicans blocked a war powers resolution.

Eight months of conflict without a congressional authorization vote, a military timetable openly pegged to the election calendar, and gasoline prices weighing on American households: the war has become the variable tying together foreign policy, the economy and democratic legitimacy. That the decision to strike or hold fire is discussed in terms of electoral convenience says a great deal about how far the power to make war has been concentrated in one person.

The Supreme Court's 2026-27 term opened on October 5 with the Trump administration having filed, by Professor Steve Vladeck's count as reported by the New York Times, 41 emergency applications since January 2025, as many as in the entire first term. On October 21, in Trump v. Kingdom (No. 26A416), the Court issued an unsigned, unexplained order denying Solicitor General D. John Sauer's request to stay Judge Royce Lamberth's August 26 order blocking the Bureau of Prisons policy cutting off hormone therapy for transgender inmates; Justices Alito and Thomas would have granted the application.

On October 1 the Court had agreed to hear Rhoney v. Barbosa da Cunha (No. 26-104), on the policy of detaining noncitizens apprehended inside the country without bond hearings: the 2025 guidelines have been ruled unlawful in more than 9,300 district court decisions and the appeals courts are split; argument is expected in early 2027. Sauer had argued that the district court "substituted its own policy judgment" for the Bureau's and faulted the agency "for following presidential directions."

Systematic use of the "shadow docket," emergency rulings issued without oral argument or reasoning, has become the executive's main route for asking the Court to bless its policies. A defeat, however rare, does not change the structural picture: when thousands of trial judges rule against a government policy and the administration keeps enforcing it while awaiting the nine justices, it is the relationship between the judiciary and the executive itself that is at stake.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll published October 19 (1,679 adults, including 1,279 registered voters, margin of error 2-3 points) puts Trump's approval at 31%, the lowest of either term, down from 32% two weeks earlier. Sixty-eight percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, including 37% of Republicans; on the generic congressional ballot Democrats lead 47-35, the widest margin of the cycle. The same day a Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll had him at 33%, with seven in ten Americans saying gasoline is becoming unaffordable; NBC found 71% saying the country is on the "wrong track."

CNN's October 21 poll records a new low on the economy as well: 27% approval, 23% on inflation, and two-thirds of respondents saying the president's policies have made economic conditions worse; Fox News had measured him at 36% on October 15, a record low for that poll. According to the AP, annual inflation stands at 3.7%, up from 3% in January 2025, with unemployment at 4.2%. Decision Desk HQ's October 21 forecast gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the House (236 seats) and 56% of taking the Senate, now 53-47 Republican, with Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups.

A president's approval is not an institutional indicator, but it is the ground on which the resilience of checks and balances is tested: an unpopular executive and an endangered congressional majority can mean the return of a Congress that exercises oversight, or an even greater temptation to contest the result. War, energy prices and tariffs, factors largely chosen by the White House, have overturned the economic argument on which Trump was elected.

On October 15 the Justice Department sued California in federal court in Los Angeles to stop the state from counting the mail ballots of roughly 20,000 voters the government believes are "likely noncitizens" unless the state verifies their citizenship; Judge David Carter scheduled an emergency hearing and the Department also asked the appeals court to intervene. On October 19, 28 alleged noncitizen voters were charged. The state replied that the suit "borders on absurd" and is at best a "reckless political stunt": a sample review by Los Angeles County election officials found registrations that were canceled, inactive, had no voting history, and even people who indicated they were born in the United States.

Late on October 21, federal Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín restricted the field operations in which homeland security agents question people about their citizenship and voter registration in California and eight other states, finding that such practices could violate the Voting Rights Act by intimidating voters; the order, put on hold to allow an appeal, would remain in force through November 3. The suit was brought by the California Nurses Association and National Nurses United, many of whose members are naturalized citizens. DHS said it has "no plans to question or investigate people we believe to be U.S. citizens"; Attorney General Todd Blanche said the goal is to ensure that only registered citizens cast ballots.

American elections are run by the states, and noncitizen voting is, by every independent study, vanishingly rare. Using the federal apparatus to challenge tens of thousands of ballots in advance in the nation's largest state, and sending agents to question voters door to door, lays the narrative groundwork for disputing the result and turns fraud from an after-the-fact accusation into a campaign tool.

By October 22 more than 16 million Americans had already voted in 41 states and the District of Columbia, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab: about 10 million by mail and 6 million in person, over 40% more than at the same point in 2022. The Associated Press found "huge surges" in Kansas and Texas and increases of at least 30% in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio, all states where Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats; in Ohio early voting has nearly quadrupled from four years ago.

In Texas, Dallas County recorded 76,079 in-person votes on the first day, an all-time record, and Harris County (Houston) 384,304 in four days, a midterm record; in Georgia the first day was up 40% over 2022. In North Carolina, as of October 18, Democrats had cast more than twice as many ballots as Republicans. The picture is not uniform: Georgia and Michigan are on par with 2022, and mail ballot returns are down in Florida and in Georgia (-58%) after the Supreme Court's decision last August leaving Trump's executive order on mail voting in effect.

Early turnout on this scale is the sign of a mobilized electorate and of participation working as a democratic antibody. But the drop in mail voting in the states touched by the executive order shows how voting rules, now set in Washington rather than only in state capitals, are already reshaping who votes and how, days before November 3.

In an October 16 executive order, Trump invoked the "national interest" clause to waive the core measures of the bipartisan Russia sanctions law named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham, which he had himself signed on September 18 and which was due to take effect on October 18: the duties on Russian imports (section 112) and the punitive tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas (section 113). The order offered no explanation; on Truth Social the president later wrote that he would not do anything that would "drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table." The waiver followed a deal under which the Kremlin agreed to release millions of tons of diesel onto the market and a separate easing of sanctions on Russian fuel exports.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: "And now, the decision to undo all of this, to block all of it, seems wrong to me." In the Senate, Republican Thom Tillis called the move "beyond irresponsible" and said the administration was "capitulating to a Russian dictator"; John Cornyn said "Lindsey would be appalled"; Representative Don Bacon: "The president is prolonging the war, not ending it"; Chuck Schumer: Trump's "deal with the devil keeps getting dirtier." Days earlier, on October 14-15, Kyiv had announced it would resume strikes on Russian refineries after Moscow failed to honor the "energy ceasefire" Trump had proposed, complaining of reduced US intelligence sharing and limits imposed on Starlink, while a Russian barrage hit 28 substations and left more than half a million people without power.

Congress passed the sanctions precisely to bind the executive; the waiver clause, granted as a compromise, was used to hollow out the law before it produced any effect. It is the same dynamic seen with tariffs and impoundment: the legislature writes, the president decides whether and when to apply. For European allies, the signal is that American commitments to Ukraine depend on the White House's negotiating mood.

On October 15 the FBI disclosed that it and the Postal Inspection Service are investigating a wave of suspicious letters sent to election officials three weeks before the vote: more than 100, according to three officials briefed on the inquiry. Envelopes containing white powder arrived in Arizona, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Wisconsin; in Arizona the Secretary of State's office was evacuated and cleared by hazmat crews. Other letters were intercepted in Nebraska, Ohio, New Hampshire, Washington, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho and South Dakota, and recipients also included Senators Alex Padilla and Chris Murphy and a polling organization.

"A sobering moment," said Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. "We will not be scared out of doing our jobs on behalf of the voters of Arizona." Ohio's Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose said the "cowardly threats will not deter us"; in Nebraska it was the second such envelope since 2024. Days earlier a New York Times investigation, carried by the Philadelphia Inquirer on October 11, had documented that over the past two years violent threats have reached officeholders at every level of government, including at least 70 of the 100 senators, with rising security costs and families living in fear.

Threats against election administrators, which began after 2020, have become a fixture of the American electoral calendar: every cycle brings new letters, new evacuations and new resignations of local officials. When intimidation becomes an expectation rather than an exception, the neutrality of the election machinery stops being a given and becomes something to be defended anew at every round.

In an October 14 Truth Social post Trump wrote that "Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin" in Greenland, which he called "our new and beautiful Greenland." Denmark's Foreign Ministry replied the same day that the agreement signed on September 22 in New York did not change the rules on extraction, that any American exploration must respect Greenland's laws, and that US investors receive no "preferential treatment" over those from other NATO and EU countries. Greenland's government also contradicted the president, as it reviews whether Texas-based Greenland Energy can use permits predating the 2021 ban on uranium mining and new oil exploration.

The ten-page agreement signed by Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, which ended months of tension and annexation threats, lets the United States expand Pituffik Space Base, paves the way for two new military bases and the "Golden Dome" missile shield, but reaffirms Danish sovereignty and Greenlanders' right to self-determination, granting no mining or drilling rights. On September 18 Trump had already claimed "permanent control over security and all other needs." For analyst Jacob Kaarsbo the president's words show that his desire to control the island has not changed; Richard Weitz of the NATO Defense College notes that Trump got nearly everything except formal annexation.

An agreement among allies is publicly reinterpreted by the strongest partner three weeks after the signing, forcing the other signatories to issue denials. It is a method, not an accident: the negotiated truth matters less than the narrative, and European countries are learning that even a signed text offers no protection against the next demand.

In a memorandum dated October 7 and made public on October 9, Trump created a three-member "committee of inquiry" charged with determining whether there is "cause" to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors: Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser; Andrea Lucas, chair of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission; and Keith Sonderling, acting director of the Office of Government Ethics. The hearing will be held on November 5 at the White House, will not be public, will last no more than four hours, and a transcript will be published. Cook is required to attend and answer questions about allegations of false statements on two 2021 mortgage applications, for which she has never been charged.

The process was designed around the Supreme Court's June 2026 ruling, which blocked the first removal attempt of August 2025 but, in a footnote, left the president free to "try again" if Cook received proper notice and a chance to respond, specifying that "cause" requires an offense that is serious and related to the official's duties. Cook's lawyers, Abbe Lowell and Norman Eisen, said they were assessing whether the process is genuine or "a box checking exercise," adding that the governor welcomes the chance to clear her name. Trump wrote that it is his job to fire subordinates who cannot be trusted to tell the truth.

In the central bank's 113 years no president had ever tried to remove a governor. That the judges of "cause" are three officials appointed by the president himself, in a closed proceeding organized at the White House, shows how even a procedural safeguard imposed by the Court can be turned into an instrument of the power it was meant to limit. The independence of monetary policy, built to insulate interest rates from the electoral cycle, is being tested four weeks before the vote.

On October 6, before federal Judge Loren AliKhan in Washington, Disney and ABC asked the court to block the decision by the Federal Communications Commission under Chairman Brendan Carr to review, years ahead of the normal schedule, the licenses of all eight ABC-owned television stations, six of them in major markets. The review came after months of Trump posts urging the FCC to strip ABC's licenses. The network's lawyer compared the proceeding to "a looming execution by guillotine" that is already chilling editorial decisions; the government replied that the suit is premature, that no license has been revoked and that ABC has shown no irreparable harm. The judge did not rule from the bench.

Carr says he is taking the "public interest" standard seriously and denies any link to content; in September 2025, on a podcast, he had said ABC could drop Jimmy Kimmel "the easy way or the hard way." Former Republican FCC chairman Mark Fowler filed a statement backing ABC: "What Carr is doing is unconstitutional." Alongside the network stands the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, whose director Bruce Brown called FCC overreach one of the biggest threats to journalism today; backing the agency are conservative groups and Republican campaign committees accusing The View of bias. The FCC has opened investigations into all the networks, NPR included, while on October 23 a judge ordered Trump to sit for a deposition by December 11 in his $10 billion suit against the BBC or face dismissal.

Licensing power is the oldest weapon a government holds over broadcasters, which is why for decades the FCC wielded it with ritual bipartisan restraint. Using it against every station of a network, after the president publicly demanded its punishment, reproduces the Hungarian model of media capture through regulators, and leaves newsrooms to work out how much they can afford to say.

On September 29, in an unexplained order in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. (No. 26A406), the Supreme Court stayed the February 25, 2026 judgment of U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy in Boston, which barred the government from deporting migrants to countries they have no ties to without notice and a chance to raise a fear of torture. The Court simultaneously granted certiorari (No. 26-426) and set argument for December, asking the parties to address jurisdiction, the scope of classwide relief, and whether the policy is unlawful under the immigration statute (8 U.S.C. § 1231(b)), the Due Process Clause or international law. Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson dissented. Just eleven days earlier, on September 18, the First Circuit had affirmed Murphy's ruling almost in full.

The same day, all eleven active judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit heard argument en banc on whether Chief Judge James Boasberg may continue his criminal contempt inquiry into the March 2025 flights that carried more than 200 Venezuelans to El Salvador's CECOT prison despite his order to turn them around. Justice Department lawyer Brett Shumate called the probe "unlawful, unnecessary and futile" and argued Boasberg cannot look for culprits beyond then-Secretary Kristi Noem; Judge Patricia Millett reminded him that the separation of powers runs both ways. For the ACLU, Lee Gelernt accused the administration of "attempting to strip federal courts of their ability to hold the government accountable". In the background, DHS announced on September 2 a new record of 50,925 ICE arrests in August, the third straight monthly record, with Secretary Markwayne Mullin repeating: "If you are in the country illegally, LEAVE NOW".

The two events illustrate a now-familiar mechanism: trial judges find violations, the executive runs to the Supreme Court's emergency docket and obtains a stay without a line of reasoning, while the consequences for those deported are irreversible. Constitutional scholar Erwin Chemerinsky summed up the problem on SCOTUSblog: "Judicial opinions matter. 'Because I said so' is never persuasive". That the question of whether a government can ignore a court order without consequence is still open eighteen months after the fact says a great deal about the state of the checks and balances.

The AP-NORC poll conducted September 24-28 among 2,140 adults (margin of error ±2.9 points) found 31% approval and 69% disapproval, the lowest figure ever recorded for Trump across both presidencies. 65% say high prices are the result of his policies, 71% disapprove of his handling of Iran and 69% say the war has not been worth fighting; only 39% approve of his handling of immigration and 73% say the country is on the wrong track. Reuters/Ipsos (September 17-20) had him at 32%.

According to Ballotpedia's average, September was the worst month of the second term: the average fell to 38% on September 29 and closed the month at 39% against 60% disapproval; at the same point of his first term Trump stood at 40% and Biden at 43%. On the generic congressional ballot Democrats reached 50% to Republicans' 43%, the highest Democratic figure since Ballotpedia began tracking it this term, while an Emerson poll of likely voters had them ahead 53 to 42. Congressional approval sits at 24%.

The numbers matter because on November 3 the whole House and a third of the Senate are up: an opposition majority would hand Congress back the oversight tools, from investigations and subpoenas to the power of the purse, that have gone unused for two years. Inflation at 3.4%, gasoline up 45% since the Iran war began and the first rate hike since 2023 weigh on an electorate that rewarded Trump precisely on the cost of living. Whether the slide in the polls translates into an electoral result remains to be seen, in a landscape of new maps, new mail-voting rules and citizenship checks never tried before.

On September 25 the Supreme Court, in an unsigned order and a 6-3 vote along ideological lines, stayed the June 22 ruling of U.S. District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan in Washington, which barred the Department of Homeland Security from giving states access to the "expanded" version of SAVE, the USCIS citizenship-status database to which, after the 2025 executive order, Social Security records and bulk-search capability were added. The lawsuit, League of Women Voters v. DHS, argued the changes violated federal privacy and administrative-procedure laws; the D.C. Circuit had denied a stay 2-1. The majority noted that the National Voter Registration Act bars systematic removals within 90 days of a federal election, which "limits the potential impact" of the decision, but searches of individual voters remain possible. Twenty-eight states have registered to use SAVE for list maintenance.

In dissent, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, joined by Kagan and Sotomayor, wrote that "the harm caused by burdening or disenfranchising even a few lawful voters outweighs the nonexistent harm" claimed by the government and that it is "too late for States to use SAVE for systematic voter-list maintenance in advance of the 2026 elections". The League of Women Voters called the decision "profoundly disappointing". On September 10 the same Court, in a one-page order with no public dissent, had instead blocked U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark's order forcing Missouri to use the Trump-backed 2025 congressional map: the Missouri Supreme Court had ruled unanimously on September 3 that the map never took effect because more than 300,000 signatures put it to a referendum on November 3. The state will vote under the 2022 map, saving Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City seat.

In under six weeks the Court intervened four times, always on an emergency basis and without extended reasoning, on the rules governing the November 3 vote: mail ballots, the citizenship database, the Missouri and California maps. On the merits the decisions do not point in a single direction, but the method is the same: the rules of the electoral game are settled on the eve of the vote, at the request of the executive or its allies, with a federal database that for the first time lets the central government reach directly into the rolls run by the states. That is the ground on which the credibility of the result will be judged when it comes.

On September 22, before nearly 130 heads of state and government gathered for the 81st General Assembly, Trump declared: "There is no global government. And while I'm president, there will be no global taxes". He called on "all nations that are members of the ICC to officially resign from this rogue institution immediately", told the UN to stop "imposing the far left agenda of global bureaucrats who nobody ever elected" and, on the war with Iran that began February 28, said: "I believe we'll make a deal right after the election... Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly". He claimed credit for the operation that led to Maduro's arrest, asserted that "there is no human right to illegal immigration", praised NATO for its 5% of GDP target and concluded that "whoever wins superintelligence wins"; a week later Executive Order 14434 directed all federal agencies to use the term "Super Intelligence" in official correspondence. PBS's fact-check rated false the claim that the United States and Venezuela together hold "more than 60% of the oil in the world" (proven reserves are about 21.9%) and misleading his statement on munitions stockpiles.

On the sidelines of the Assembly Trump signed with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen a ten-page trilateral agreement that lets the United States "modernize and expand" Pituffik Space Base, set up "defense areas" at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig and bars non-NATO countries from military installations on the island; it reaffirms Danish sovereignty and the right to self-determination, grants no mineral rights, has no end date and would remain in force if Greenland became independent. Trump spoke of "permanent control over security and all other needs" and "two very major military bases"; Frederiksen, who had warned that a takeover would mean the end of NATO, called it "a deal that can last forever"; Nielsen "a win-win-win agreement". On September 26 Trump rejected Iran's proposal, relayed through Qatar, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for lifting the naval blockade: "I rejected their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they're losing so badly".

The speech makes a doctrine explicit: national sovereignty as an absolute value, multilateral bodies as adversaries, military force as an ordinary instrument and war as a variable in the domestic electoral calendar. The Greenland pact shows the other face of the same method: a year-long threat of annexation against a NATO ally, converted into an agreement the allies had to present as a victory. For Europe's democracies the precedent cuts two ways, because it teaches that pressure works and that the price of normalization is paid by those on the receiving end.

On Friday, September 18, in a Truth Social post and then in the Oval Office, Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW and Politico were barred from the White House, accusing them of "constant 'reporting' FAKE NEWS" and explaining that the decision stemmed from "cumulative stories over the last few years"; he warned that "other outlets" would "follow". On Saturday the 19th, correspondents Akayla Gardner (MS NOW), Betsy Klein (CNN) and Cheyenne Haslett (Politico) were turned away at the gate and their passes confiscated or disabled. On Monday the 21st the three outlets sued Trump and senior officials in federal court in Washington, seeking the immediate restoration of their credentials: the complaint alleges viewpoint discrimination and retaliation for past coverage, "in disregard of the most basic guarantees of the First Amendment and the Due Process Clause", and states that "this ban could not be a more direct assault on the First Amendment".

The case went to Judge Timothy J. Kelly, a Trump appointee who in 2018 ordered the White House to restore CNN's Jim Acosta's pass. Jacqui Heinrich, president of the White House Correspondents' Association, called the move a constitutional violation and noted that the press's protection "does not depend on whether the president likes a news organization's coverage"; Jameel Jaffer of the Knight First Amendment Institute called the ban "pretty clearly unconstitutional". Trump replied that the White House was not attacking the free press but "the FAKE NEWS", that "I don't think a court should allow fake news to be written day after day after day", and anticipated defeat at trial level: "we'll go for appeal". On September 29 the outlets asked the court to bar enforcement of the ban until the case is resolved. In the background remain the $15 billion lawsuit against The New York Times and the $10 billion suits against The Wall Street Journal and the BBC.

Twice already this term, courts had found that suspending a reporter's pass over his reporting violates the Constitution; the White House acted anyway, announcing in advance that it will appeal. This is the typical dynamic of gradual erosion: the norm is not repealed but hollowed out, every step forces the press to defend itself in court, and the cost of critical coverage rises. Access to the primary source of power becomes a privilege granted according to how pleasing the headlines are.

On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, by a vote of 12 to 0: the first hike since July 2023 and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, in office for less than four months. Inflation rose to 3.4% in August, above average wage growth of 3.1%, and gasoline is up more than 45% since the Iran war began on February 28. "The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long", Warsh said; asked what he had to say to the president, he answered: "I've got nothing for you on a discussion with the president". All but two members expect another hike by year-end. The Dow fell 630 points and the 10-year Treasury yield moved back near its highest since 2007.

That evening Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social: "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!", arguing that rates "should be 1% or less" because the United States has "the Best Credit in the World" (Canada, Australia and Germany carry higher ratings). In the following days he attacked the board as "a bunch of politicians" and recounted telling Warsh "you might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter", while repeating that he had confidence in him. In February Trump had told NBC that Warsh would not have been nominated unless he intended to lower rates.

This is the first concrete test of the central bank's independence since Powell was replaced with a chair chosen explicitly to cut: the committee decided unanimously in the opposite direction from the one the White House demanded, showing that the institution holds even when its head is a presidential pick. But Trump's reaction, which separates "his" chairman from a board to be delegitimized, opens the way to new pressure on the Board's composition. The hike comes seven weeks before the vote and with inflation fed by war and tariffs: the economy is once again the ground on which the executive's political strength is measured.

Late on September 14 the Supreme Court, in an unsigned order (docket 26A305, USPS v. California), denied the government's request to lift the injunction that prevents the Postal Service from applying to the November 3 elections the new mail-voting rules derived from Executive Order 14399 of March 31: unique barcodes on envelopes, voter lists submitted by states through a federal portal, and USPS authority to refuse delivery of non-compliant ballots. "The Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge", the Court wrote. Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas dissented; Brett Kavanaugh, while finding "at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service's statutory authority", concluded that "state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections".

The decision closes a summer-long battle: on August 24 the same Court had vacated 6-3, as premature, the first injunction by U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani, with Justice Jackson writing of a "Kafkaesque nightmare"; on August 26 USPS published its 95-page final rule and Talwani blocked it again at the request of 23 Democratic-led states and the District of Columbia, while on September 13 a judge in Washington did the same in a Democratic Party suit. Trump reacted on Truth Social on September 15, calling the ruling "horrible, highly political", writing that "Certain Justices are petrified of these crazed and depraved Democrats" and that the Court has "set America back at least a hundred years". New York Attorney General Letitia James said the change "could have thrown our elections into chaos"; a USPS whistleblower had described the system as "secretive, rushed, chaotic, and fundamentally flawed".

It is the second time in a year that the Court has stopped the executive from rewriting the rules of a federal election by administrative fiat months before the vote, but it does so without ruling on the underlying legality: the rule survives for future elections. The political fact is a president who attacks by name the justices who do not follow him and frames a ruling on the integrity of the vote as "a big loss for Republicans". The institutional fact is that election administration, a state function since 1789, is now contested by the federal government through the postal service.

At 3 p.m. on Thursday, September 10, Joseph diGenova resigned by letter as Counselor to Attorney General Todd Blanche and as head of the so-called "grand conspiracy" investigation, run out of the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of Florida into the officials who over the years investigated Trump, from former CIA Director John Brennan on down. "I did in fact resign", he confirmed to The Associated Press, calling it "an honor and a privilege" and adding that "conducting investigations is arduous work and there are always differences of opinions". He had taken over the file in April, after the firing of prosecutor Maria Meditis Long, promising charges within thirty days; five months later none had come.

According to ABC News the resignation came amid growing frustration from Trump and senior Justice Department officials; CNN reported a tense phone call the day before in which diGenova resisted lawyers sent from headquarters; The Washington Post wrote that pressure to deliver indictments fast drove him out. Leaving with him are his wife and law partner Victoria Toensing and attorney Kurt Olsen, who disagreed over the probe's pace. The next day Bloomberg reported that the Department is nonetheless ramping up the investigation, while the cases against James Comey and Letitia James, dismissed in November 2025 over the unlawful appointment of prosecutor Lindsey Halligan, remain pending before the Fourth Circuit.

The episode shows the paradox of justice used as retribution: when loyalists run it, the demand for quick results collides with the absence of evidence and produces defections, not trials. But the institutional damage does not depend on convictions: the mere existence of a standing investigation into the president's political enemies, entrusted to prosecutors chosen for loyalty, is enough to strip the Justice Department of its credibility as an impartial arbiter. The constant turnover at the top is the mark of an organization that runs on the boss's will rather than on rules.

On September 9 and 10 the Republican Party held the first midterm convention in its history at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. In the opening keynote Trump promised $5,000 checks, a "Trump dividend", on condition that Republicans keep control of Congress, without saying where the money would come from or how it would be distributed; he asked voters to act as though he were on the ballot, had the crowd raise their hands to swear they would vote ("You go to hell, and I don't want that to happen to you, so please, go and vote") and formally endorsed Ken Paxton for Senate in Texas, where the attorney general trails Democrat James Talarico in polls and fundraising and has received $10 million from the MAGA Inc. super PAC. Vice President Vance closed the second night; absent from the program were Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, both seen as possible 2028 contenders, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

The second day coincided with the first anniversary of the assassination of Charlie Kirk, shot on September 10, 2025 at a university event in Utah: Trump remembered him from the stage as "a great friend", Governor Spencer Cox proclaimed "Charlie Kirk Day" and House Republican leaders issued statements condemning political violence. Defendant Tyler Robinson pleaded not guilty on September 1 and faces the death penalty. Days after the anniversary, Kirk's statue outside Turning Point USA headquarters in Phoenix was vandalized; police are investigating.

A party that stages a national convention two months before a legislative election to put the president at the center of the ballot, with a cash transfer conditioned on the outcome, rewrites the relationship between Congress and the executive in plebiscitary terms: the legislature becomes an appendage of the leader, and public money the reward for electoral loyalty. The Kirk anniversary, marked inside the same event, is a reminder of how fully political violence has become a fixture of campaign language and how a victim's memory is wielded by both sides as a weapon of alignment.

On Saturday, September 5, Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow to restart the Ukraine negotiations, stalled for months partly because of the war with Iran. "We have an idea for peace", Trump had said the day before, without giving details; Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov called the conversation "constructive, extremely frank and trustful" and said the Americans had put forward "a number of ideas on possible routes to a settlement". For the visit Putin ordered three days without strikes on Kyiv and Zelensky suspended strikes on Moscow: "Ukraine is ready to refrain from strikes on Moscow, and we expect the Russians to do the same regarding Kyiv".

On Sunday the 6th in Kyiv Witkoff spoke of "very meaningful discussions"; Zelensky welcomed the restart but warned that the territorial question "remains a relevant one" and must be settled by leaders, pointing to three elements agreed with partners: a ceasefire, a free economic zone and security guarantees involving the EU and NATO. Putin later made clear that Russia would resume talks only after the September 20 Duma elections and "on terms that are acceptable to the Russian Federation", including Ukraine's withdrawal from the rest of Donbas, and rejected a meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of the G20. Observers judged the September mission to have produced no concrete progress.

Personal diplomacy entrusted to envoys without institutional mandate, with proposals never made public and deadlines set by the American political calendar, is the signature of this term's foreign policy. For Europe, which remains outside the room even as the security guarantor Kyiv invokes, it confirms that the alliance framework built since 1949 is no longer where the continent's questions are decided.

On September 1 the House passed, 370 to 48 under a suspension of the rules requiring two-thirds, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027 (H.R. 6500), which the Senate had already passed in August on the basis of the bipartisan deal announced on August 2 by Appropriations leaders Susan Collins and Patty Murray. Trump signed it on the evening of September 2 (P.L. 119-103): the law holds spending at fiscal 2026 levels for 72 days, from October 1 to December 11, with adjustments for SNAP, WIC and disaster relief.

The text leaves out the funds the White House requested for the Iran war, the $1 billion for the "Trump-class" battleship and the sequestration exemption for reconciliation funds; it closes the "loopholes" that would have allowed money to be shifted to the Border Patrol and blocks an Office of Management and Budget proposal to cancel grants at any time. "This clean, short-term continuing resolution simply keeps the government open", said Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole; Democrat Betty McCollum said she was "very proud" of the exclusion of the Iran funding. The vote comes after the record 43-day shutdown that opened fiscal 2026: only 2 of the 12 regular appropriations bills have passed the House and none the Senate.

That Congress managed to avoid a pre-election paralysis is a sign of minimal functioning, but the method remains permanent emergency: three months at a time, without a budget, with decisions postponed until after the vote. Inside that compromise, however, are two acts of parliamentary self-defense worth recording: the refusal to fund a war never authorized and the explicit ban on the executive canceling appropriated funds at will. It is the power of the purse trying to take back what impoundment has taken from it, at least until December 11.

On August 31 the Supreme Court, in an unsigned 5-4 order, stayed the injunction with which U.S. District Judge Richard Leon had blocked above-ground construction of Donald Trump's new ballroom on the site of the demolished East Wing since late March. The D.C. Circuit had upheld the block on August 7, holding that Congress has "full constitutional control over federal property"; Chief Justice John Roberts had granted a temporary administrative stay on August 21. The majority found that the National Trust for Historic Preservation, suing on behalf of architectural historian Alison Hoagland, likely lacks standing: "mere offense, disagreement, or distaste does not qualify as a concrete and particularized injury." It added: "Today, we do not pass upon the legality of the government's East Wing project."

Unusually, Roberts joined Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson in dissent, writing that the project is "likely unlawful": "Yet Congress has not passed any law resembling 'express authority' for the Executive's construction of it," and "Today's decision is no victory for the separation of powers." The building, roughly 90,000 square feet against the 12,000 of the demolished East Wing, seating up to 999 guests over an underground complex with bomb shelters and medical facilities, is now estimated by the administration at $400 million (the initial figure was $200 million; an internal contractor estimate reported by the Washington Post put it at $600 million), of which $335 million has been raised from private donors. Construction is 65 percent complete, with a 250-person crew working "20 hours a day, 7 days a week," and delivery is promised for summer 2028. Trump, who had earlier called the National Trust "treasonists," celebrated on Truth Social that the Court had ruled "without any further contingency, doubt, or threat."

The case is a textbook dispute over who controls federal property and federal money. In June seven Republican senators had joined Democrats in a failed attempt to bar funding for the project without congressional authorization; three Republican senators have instead introduced a bill to appropriate $400 million. For the second time in a week, after the August 24 order on mail voting, the Court sided with the executive on procedural grounds without reaching the merits, a pattern that, according to the Brennan Center's tracker, has let the administration prevail in the vast majority of its emergency requests. When the most cautious of the conservative justices describes a ruling as a defeat for the separation of powers, it measures how far the line between the White House and Congress has moved.

On August 24, in Trump v. California, the Supreme Court issued a per curiam order, split 6-3 along ideological lines, vacating the preliminary injunction with which U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani of Massachusetts had blocked in June the late-March executive order on mail voting, at the request of 23 states and the District of Columbia. The order directs the Department of Homeland Security to compile "State Citizenship Lists" of adult citizens (section 2a), authorizes the Attorney General to prosecute officials who send ballots to ineligible voters (2b), and instructs the Postal Service to adopt a rule delivering mail ballots only to people on the federal lists, with new envelope standards (section 3). The administration had filed its emergency application on July 27, joined by twelve Republican-led states in Alabama v. California, and on August 12 urged the justices to rule "promptly."

The majority held that the states lacked standing and that their claims were not ripe: section 2a is "an internal directive from the President to a subordinate," 2b merely sets prosecutorial priorities within the President's Article II power, and section 3 only starts a rulemaking that is not yet final. As to whether the implementing measures will be lawful, "time will tell." Sotomayor, joined by Kagan, objected that the ruling "merely postpones adjudication of those challenges"; Jackson called the outcome a "Kafkaesque nightmare" that "needlessly injects chaos and uncertainty into the upcoming midterm elections." A second, nationwide injunction issued by Talwani on August 11 in League of Women Voters of Massachusetts v. Trump remains in force; the Postal Service published its final rule on August 21 while saying it would not enforce it in November without the Court's clearance, and on August 27 Talwani barred the government for fourteen days from requiring states to comply with it.

The fight is part of an unprecedented federal push into election administration, historically a state responsibility. In the same month, on August 14, the Sixth Circuit denied en banc rehearing of the Justice Department's defeat in its demand for Michigan's unredacted voter rolls, including dates of birth and partial Social Security numbers: the DOJ has sued 29 states and the District of Columbia and has lost in every court, including before 22 trial judges. An order on who may vote by mail, issued ten weeks before an election and leaving the rules unsettled, is exactly the institutional uncertainty the dissenting Justice Jackson warns about.

On August 18 ABC, its parent Disney and eight company-owned local stations sued the Federal Communications Commission, Chairman Brendan Carr and Commissioners Olivia Trusty and Anna Gomez in federal court in Washington, D.C. In April the FCC had ordered ABC to file renewal applications for the eight stations years ahead of schedule, with licenses not otherwise due until 2028 to 2031, as part of a probe into the company's hiring and diversity practices, days after a Jimmy Kimmel joke had angered the president. The network seeks an injunction halting the proceeding and barring the commission from "take, or threaten to take" related action.

The complaint speaks of an "existential threat," of attacks on the network's speech "again and again," and of "blatant retaliation" for protected expression; ABC says it has "no alternative means" to stop the threats short of "total capitulation." Carr called it "a meritless case" and had said in late July that broadcasters must "operate in the public interest" in exchange for free use of the airwaves; Gomez, the commission's lone Democrat, praised Disney for pushing back and accused the FCC of using licenses to punish speech the administration dislikes. It is the sixth lawsuit between a news organization and the FCC since 2025, while an Axios count published the same day tallies 61 Trump lawsuits against media since 2015, 16 in 2025 and 9 in the first eight months of 2026. Also in August, the FCC voted 2-1 to loosen television ownership limits, a move challenged by a coalition of consumer groups.

Using licensing power as leverage over editorial content turns an independent technical regulator into an instrument of political pressure, in the classic pattern of illiberal democracies: not outright censorship but a regulatory threat that makes dissent expensive. That the target is America's largest entertainment group rather than a marginal outlet suggests the aim is preemptive self-censorship across the whole system.

Six months after the United States and Israel opened hostilities on February 28, the war with Iran is a costly stalemate. On August 10 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran and Oman were close to an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, but that the waterway would not reopen without sanctions relief and war reparations; Iran claims the right to control shipping and threatens vessels using unapproved routes. According to MarineTraffic, between August 4 and 6 only 8 to 15 ships a day transited, against roughly 130 before the conflict; the International Maritime Organization counts at least 64 violent incidents and 17 deaths among commercial crews. Brent, at $84, stood 16 percent above pre-war levels.

On August 18 Trump said no talks with Iran were underway or scheduled, contradicting his claim the previous day of back-channel contacts with the Revolutionary Guard; oil rose to its highest since July. The ceasefire imposed in April had been declared "over" by Trump himself in July after Iranian attacks on shipping, with strikes and the naval blockade of Iranian ports resumed. Congress remains split: on July 23 the House passed 214-208 a concurrent resolution, without force of law, to limit hostilities, while the Senate's war powers resolution failed 47-49. In May the White House had told Congress that hostilities "have terminated," a position many legal scholars regard as an end run around the War Powers Act.

Public opinion has turned sharply against the war: in the UMass Amherst poll of August 21-26, 68 percent disapprove of its handling and four in five Americans say it has raised food and gas prices; in Reuters/Ipsos polling 80 percent expect a prolonged involvement. A war begun without congressional authorization, continued after the president declared it finished and backed by a minority of the country illustrates the drift of war powers toward the executive and the legislature's reluctance to take them back.

On August 7 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, against the 83,000 gain economists expected, the first decline after four months of growth; May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. Unemployment slipped to 4.1 percent, but only because labor force participation hit its lowest level since February 2021; average hourly earnings rose 3.2 percent year on year, the slowest pace in five years and below inflation. "The labor market is stalling again," economist Heather Long said. On August 12 the July consumer price index came in at 0.1 percent for the month and 3.4 percent for the year (down from 3.5 in June and a 4.2 peak in May), with energy still up 14.7 percent on the year and gasoline at $4.03 a gallon; real wages were down 0.2 percent.

The polls register the backlash. The Economist/YouGov survey of August 7-10 puts Trump's approval at 33 percent and disapproval at 62, a net of -29, the worst of either term; among independents the split is 18 to 71 and Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 46 to 40. The Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on August 17 confirms 33 percent approval (64 disapprove), down from 35 earlier in the month and the lowest of his presidency, tying the December 2017 low. The Pew Research Center, on August 6, measures 34 percent against 40 at the same point of his first term and notes a 78-point gap between Republicans and Democrats, the widest in more than seventy years of polling. At the end of the month UMass Amherst records 32 percent, with 75 percent rating his handling of inflation negatively.

War, tariffs and energy prices are eroding the economic base of the coalition that returned Trump to the White House. In strained democracies a collapse in popularity can act as a brake, if it produces electoral defeats and a less compliant Congress, or as an accelerant, if it pushes the executive to bend the rules further to hold on to power. With the midterms less than three months away, August's numbers set the stakes.

On August 11 voters in four of Alabama's seven congressional districts (the 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th) returned to the polls for special primaries after Republican Governor Kay Ivey nullified the May 19 results in those districts. The trigger was Louisiana v. Callais, the April 29 Supreme Court decision that made vote-dilution claims under the Voting Rights Act far harder to win: Alabama asked to restore the map drawn by its legislature in 2023, which two courts had found intentionally discriminatory, and got it. On May 11 the Supreme Court lifted the injunctions against that map; when a federal panel blocked it again in late May, the justices reinstated it on June 2, saying the lower court's analysis "departed from" Callais.

The new map, in force from January 2027, eliminates one of the state's two majority-Black districts, both held by Democrats. In the 2nd District, where Representative Shomari Figures is seeking a second term, the Black share of the population drops from about half to 40 percent: Kamala Harris carried it 53 to 46 in 2024, while under the new lines Trump would have won 57 to 42. Figures will face Rhett Marques, a Trump-endorsed state representative who won the Republican primary; in the 7th District Terri Sewell, seeking a ninth term, will face Ammie Akin. Turnout in the rerun was 5.24 percent, at an estimated cost to taxpayers of $4.45 million. The ACLU denounced an order that "reinstated a map that a district court found unconstitutional."

Alabama is the most immediate application of the Court's new reading of the Voting Rights Act and of a map war that, according to NBC News, has already seen ten states adopt new boundaries with a potential gain of up to 16 seats for Republicans against 6 for Democrats. When a Supreme Court allows an election to be held on a map that trial judges found intentionally discriminatory, minority representation stops being a constitutional constraint and becomes one more variable in partisan competition.

In the early hours of Saturday, August 8, the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General by 50 votes to 49, with every Democrat and Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski opposed. Blanche, who defended Trump at his New York trial, had run the Justice Department as acting head since April, when the president fired Pam Bondi after months of resistance from judges, grand juries and the department's own workforce to prosecutions of administration critics. The decisive vote came from Bill Cassidy, who had lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger: "This is not a referendum on President Trump. It is a decision regarding Mr. Blanche in very specific circumstances."

To win over wavering Republicans, Blanche promised in writing to abandon the $1.8 billion "Anti-Weaponization Fund" meant to compensate the administration's allies, including January 6 defendants, and to rein in a settlement provision shielding Trump and his family from IRS audits. Dick Durbin called the confirmation a "serious mistake"; Murkowski said the country needs an attorney general "who will check the worst impulses of this administration"; Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley said "Mr. Blanche is the right choice." Under his stewardship the department indicted former FBI Director James Comey over a social media post of seashells arranged as "86 47" and handed Joseph diGenova a Florida probe into an alleged conspiracy by former officials against Trump; it has lost thousands of employees to firings and resignations.

Two weeks later, on August 21, House Judiciary Democrats released the "Pardons, Inc." report, estimating that presidential clemency has erased nearly $1.7 billion in restitution, fines and forfeitures, with 290 "influencers" intervening in 197 successful second-term pardon bids; for Jamie Raskin, clemency has become "a bustling marketplace for insider political influence." Confirming the president's personal lawyer to run federal law enforcement by the narrowest possible margin completes the Justice Department's conversion from an institution with a tradition of independence into an arm of the executive, with the Senate's check reduced to a set of written promises.

On August 7 lawyers for Don Lemon, the former CNN anchor, filed a motion in federal court in St. Paul, Minnesota, to dismiss his indictment for "vindictive and selective prosecution." Lemon is charged with conspiracy against religious rights and with violating the FACE Act over his presence, on January 18, at a protest against ICE inside Cities Church in St. Paul; eight people were initially indicted, and Lemon says he was there to report. The motion cites more than a dozen hostile statements by Trump and administration officials, including civil rights chief Harmeet Dhillon, and recalls that a magistrate judge refused to sign the arrest warrant, forcing prosecutors to go to the chief judge and then to the Eighth Circuit. The filing denounces "flagrant and blatant efforts to punish a journalist for his protected conduct."

The case has become a collective test. Journalist Georgia Fort filed a similar motion the day before; on August 18 Judge Provinzio ordered the government to disclose grand jury material about Fort and Lemon by August 25; on August 31, 31 defendants filed a joint motion to dismiss for selective or vindictive prosecution. In parallel, on August 7 a judge denied the Southern Poverty Law Center's analogous motion, and on August 11 the government filed a second superseding indictment adding former SPLC official Heidi Beirich as a defendant; on August 26 the Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that Representative LaMonica McIver is not shielded by the Speech or Debate Clause over her confrontation with ICE agents. Protect Democracy's tracker counts 37 retaliatory actions, 12 of which have failed through dismissals or grand juries declining to indict, as in the Comey and Letitia James cases.

The vindictive prosecution doctrine was built for rare exceptions; dozens of defendants invoking it at once, citing the president's public words as evidence of animus, describe a system in which federal prosecution has fused with the White House's political agenda. That journalists, a civil rights organization and an opposition legislator were all in the dock in the same month shows the three classic targets of a power that criminalizes dissent.

On August 6, in the Oval Office, Trump signed two executive orders five weeks after the June 30 ruling in Trump v. Barbara, in which the Supreme Court struck down his January 2025 order denying citizenship to children of parents unlawfully or temporarily present, finding it irreconcilable with the Fourteenth Amendment. The first order, "Continuing to Protect the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship," excludes from automatic citizenship children with a parent who is an "alien enemy," a foreign government employee, or who "engaged in a commercial transaction to purchase or access birthright citizenship," and extends restrictions to territories where citizenship is not conferred by statute, such as American Samoa. The second, "Ending Birth Tourism," directs the State and Homeland Security departments to deny or revoke visas and entry to those suspected of coming to the United States to give birth.

"It was close, but a very, very unfortunate decision," Trump said of the ruling, adding "So we're making adjustments because it's very unfair" and promising "very big crackdowns." Stephen Miller described birth tourism as a decades-old problem. The numbers are modest: fewer than 10,000 births in 2024 to mothers with foreign addresses according to federal data, and estimates of 22,000 to 26,000 by the Migration Policy Institute, out of 3.6 million births a year. For the ACLU's Cody Wofsy, "No additional executive order can change the meaning of the Constitution," and the new order "will meet the same fate as the last one"; Senator Ruben Gallego observed that "even our extremist Supreme Court ruled it's not up for debate." Civil rights groups have announced legal challenges.

The method is telling: a clear Supreme Court ruling is answered not with a constitutional amendment or legislation but with a new decree redrawing the boundaries of the same subject, forcing the courts to start over. It is erosion by successive attempts, wearing down the authority of judicial decisions and keeping the rights of those affected in suspense, turning birthright citizenship, a pillar of American civic equality since 1868, into a matter of permanent negotiation.

In a letter dated August 5 and signed by Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, the White House informed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook that the president is "considering" removing her from the Board, giving her 21 days, through August 26, to submit evidence and arguments through the Director of Presidential Personnel. The letter revives the 2021 mortgage fraud allegations, predating her time at the Fed, that originated in an August 2025 referral by FHFA Director William Pulte: Cook allegedly listed both a Georgia condo and a Michigan house as her primary residence. The document speaks of "gross negligence" and argues the conduct undermines her trustworthiness "even if the allegations do not amount to a crime."

It is the second attempt. The first firing, in August 2025, was blocked by the lower courts and finally by the Supreme Court, which on June 29, 2026, in Trump v. Cook, held 5-4 in an opinion by Chief Justice Roberts that Cook was entitled to notice and an opportunity to respond before any removal "for cause," reaffirming the Fed's unique structure and independence and leaving any change to Congress. Roberts had specified, however, that "all that is required" is a chance, even brief and informal, to make her case: the new letter follows precisely that path. Cook's lawyers, Abbe Lowell and Norm Eisen, called the allegations "as baseless now as they were a year ago" and promised: "we will challenge this latest pretext and preserve her position and the historic role of the Fed." On August 26 her counsel responded, denying any wrongdoing. Meanwhile the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, in office since May 22, is treated by Trump almost as a cabinet member, while the board holds rates steady with inflation at 3.4 percent.

The episode shows how a ruling meant to protect an independent institution can be converted into a procedural manual for circumventing it: once the forms of due process are observed, removing an unwelcome governor becomes possible again. At stake is political control of the central bank on the eve of an election and amid pressure on interest rates, with a precedent that would apply to every independent agency.

On August 3 a coalition of 25 plaintiffs, 23 states plus the Democratic governors of Kentucky and Pennsylvania, asked a three-judge panel of the Court of International Trade to strike down tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on 59 countries and the European Union, covering 99 percent of U.S. imports. The duties, announced by the U.S. Trade Representative on July 23 as a response to "forced labor," took effect at midnight on July 24, just as the temporary 10 percent tariffs adopted under Section 122 expired. Those had been the stopgap after the Supreme Court ruled on February 20 in Learning Resources v. Trump (6-3, opinion by Roberts) that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs, forcing the Treasury to refund roughly $100 billion to importers.

The states argue that the forced-labor investigations were mishandled and that the duties function as a wholesale implementation of the president's trade policy rather than the targeted measure Section 301 allows; they also seek full refunds for state agencies. "After losing at the Supreme Court, the administration is once again trying to illegally raise taxes," said New York Attorney General Letitia James. White House spokesman Kush Desai replied that "Section 301 tariffs have proven to be a legally durable tool since the President's first term." In May the same court had already found the Section 122 tariffs unlawful while leaving them in place pending appeal; on August 13, by contrast, it upheld the end of the "de minimis" exemption for shipments under $800, distinguishing it from the global tariffs that were struck down. According to Fitch, the effective tariff rate has fallen to 7.4 percent from 9.4.

It is the third legal basis in six months for the same goal: taxing imports without going through Congress, which holds the constitutional power to levy duties. Each adverse ruling is absorbed by switching statutory labels, while the states, not the legislature, have remained the only active counterweight. For European allies, hit at the same rate as competitors, the message is that American trade policy depends on the resilience of the courts more than on signed agreements.

On Sunday, August 2, Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins and Vice Chair Patty Murray announced agreement on a continuing resolution keeping federal funding at current levels through December 11, past the September 30 deadline and the November 3 elections. The text includes adjustments for the SNAP and WIC food programs, disaster relief and national security; closes, in Murray's words, the "loopholes" that let the administration move money from other programs to the Border Patrol; blocks a White House budget office proposal allowing grants to be canceled at any time; and rejects "Trump's frivolous war spending wish list," the supplemental package for the Iran war.

Collins called the bill "straightforward" and free of "poison pills"; Murray "a much-improved CR to keep the government funded and avert a shutdown that no one wants"; Chuck Schumer "a responsible path forward." The House, already in recess, had passed its own extension to December 4. The Senate voted the text in August and the House adopted it on September 1 by 370 to 48, leaving out the Iran funding and the $1 billion for a new "Trump-class" battleship the White House had requested. Fiscal year 2026 had opened with the longest shutdown in history, followed by a four-day closure spanning January and February and a 76-day one from February 14 to April 30.

That a Republican-controlled Congress must write explicit bans on fund transfers and unilateral grant cancellations into its spending bill shows how far the power of the purse has been eroded by the executive through transfers, impoundments and rescissions. The stopgap avoids chaos on the eve of the vote, but pushes to December 11, in a lame-duck Congress, the reckoning over who really decides how public money is spent.

On July 30, Disney-owned ABC filed court papers accusing the Federal Communications Commission of using the threat of revoked broadcast licenses to intimidate outlets critical of the president. At issue is FCC Chairman Brendan Carr's April decision to open an early review of the licenses of eight ABC-owned stations, which were not due for renewal until October 2028. According to the network, the FCC has not conducted a review of this kind in more than fifty years.

ABC called the move "a signal to every media company in the country" and said the agency is seeking "a media industry too fearful of official reprisal to report the news freely." The review was announced days after Trump demanded that ABC fire late-night host Jimmy Kimmel; the FCC says it stems from an investigation into the network's diversity policies. In July, after several broadcasters including ABC declined to carry his election security address on their main channels, Trump wrote: "Fraud like this should mean a revocation of their licenses." In the courts, the president is pursuing defamation suits against The New York Times ($15 billion), The Wall Street Journal ($10 billion) and the BBC ($10 billion).

Turning an independent regulator against the editorial choices of a national network marks the shift from verbal threats to administrative tools. When a license renewal depends on the executive's approval, the cost of criticism moves from public debate to the balance sheets of media companies, which is precisely how illiberal democracies discipline the press without ever censoring it.

On July 29 the Federal Open Market Committee left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, on a 9-3 vote. The presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas Feds, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, the first time since September 2016 that three members dissented in the same direction. Chairman Kevin Warsh, at his second meeting since succeeding Jerome Powell, described "a good family fight" and said the central bank "will not hesitate to act" on inflation, which has been above 2% for more than five years and is being fed by tariffs and by oil above $100 because of the Iran war.

Trump, who appointed Warsh to bring rates down, defended him while attacking his colleagues: "He's a brilliant guy, smart, I know he'd love to see lower interest rates, but he's got a board," and again called the Fed "political." Markets now price in a September hike, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile July polling marked the low point of the second term: 33% approval in the AP-NORC survey (July 23-27), 37% for Washington Post/Ipsos (July 8-13), 40% for Marquette (July 22-29) with 24% on inflation and 30% on the Iran war; Nate Silver's average stood at 38.2% on July 30. Marquette gives Democrats a 6-point lead among likely midterm voters.

The episode shows the central bank's independence holding even under a chairman chosen by the White House: the committee voted against the president's wishes, and the response was to delegitimize the institution. At the same time, the collapse of approval on economic issues has become the variable that weighs most on November's elections and on Congress's willingness to exercise oversight.

On July 27, lawyers for former FBI Director James Comey asked U.S. District Judge Louise Flanagan of the Eastern District of North Carolina to dismiss with prejudice the two counts of threatening to kill the president, based on a May 2025 Instagram photo of seashells arranged to read "86 47." The defense argues the post is speech protected by the First Amendment and not a "true threat": in common usage, "86" means "get rid of," as in to throw out. On July 28 a second round of motions alleged selective and vindictive prosecution, pointing to merchandise bearing "86 47" or "86 46" sold freely online without any charges.

The filings say the government "singled out Mr. Comey for prosecution because President Trump harbors animus" toward his speech, and that the Secret Service, at the request of a senior Justice Department official, "knowingly conducted illegal electronic surveillance" of his phone without a warrant, through a request to Verizon citing an "emergency"; one official reportedly conceded that "legally it was a bad idea to ping the phone." The indictment was unveiled in April by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, who denied any presidential direction: "Of course not, absolutely, positively not." The Justice Department says Comey "will have his day in court like any other defendant"; arraignment is set for September 30 in New Bern. An earlier indictment for lying to Congress was thrown out in 2025 because the interim U.S. attorney who obtained it had been unlawfully appointed.

For the second time in under a year, the Justice Department has hauled the same adversary of the president into court, this time with a theory that turns an ambiguous social media post into a federal crime. The case tests whether the courts can still act as a check on a criminal justice system that follows the list of enemies named by the White House.

On Saturday, July 25, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit refused, 2-1, the administration's request to pause the injunction blocking the April 1, 2026 executive order on mail voting. The order directs the Department of Homeland Security to build state citizenship lists from federal data and send them to election officials to verify mail ballots, and tells the Postal Service not to deliver absentee or mail-in ballots to anyone not on the lists. Twenty-three Democratic-led states and the District of Columbia had sued to stop it.

In the district court, Judge Indira Talwani in Boston had ruled on June 25 that Sections 2 and 3 of the order "are legally void as they are ultra vires and unconstitutionally violate the separation of powers," since the Constitution gives states and Congress, not the president, authority over the rules of federal elections. The appeals judges noted that the states already face immediate consequences, including deadlines to change election procedures before November, and that "the injunction prevents the federal Defendants from enforcing the EO" in their elections. Two days later, on July 27, the Justice Department asked the Supreme Court to stay the injunction in Trump v. California, while the president, in his July 16 address, had called mail voting corrupt and urged Congress to restrict it.

Four months before the midterms, a president trying to decide by decree who may receive a ballot, and turning to the Supreme Court to get his way, raises the central question of electoral legitimacy: the rules of the game are being rewritten by the executive during the game itself, and control over elections is shifting from the states to a federal power that is itself on the ballot.

At 12:01 a.m. on July 24, the 10% global tariff Trump had imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act after the Supreme Court struck down his IEEPA tariffs expired at the end of its 150-day statutory limit. Congress did not extend it, and the Court of International Trade had already ruled it unlawful on May 7, by a 2-1 vote, while limiting relief to the three importers who sued. At the very same moment, new tariffs announced the day before by the U.S. Trade Representative took effect: 12.5% on countries that do not ban imports made with forced labor and 10% on those that have a ban but fail to enforce it, under Section 301.

The action covers 60 economies and, according to the law firm Holland & Knight, 99.4% of U.S. imports. China, Brazil, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia face 12.5%; Canada, Mexico, India, the United Kingdom and Indonesia 10%; for the European Union and Taiwan the 10% operates as a cap inclusive of ordinary duties, as does 12.5% for Japan, Korea and Switzerland, mirroring the framework deals negotiated under IEEPA. USMCA goods, civil aircraft, pharmaceuticals and products already under Section 232 are exempt. The investigations were opened on March 12 and closed on June 2 with an identical finding for all 60 countries; the tariffs remain in force "indefinitely absent subsequent amendment."

This is the third legal basis in under a year for the same tariff policy: each time a court or a statutory deadline closes one door, the executive opens another. Serial substitution of statutory authorities drains court rulings and congressional time limits of effect, and confirms that the power to tax trade, constitutionally the legislature's, is now wielded by the White House as an everyday instrument.

On July 21, War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine told the Senate Appropriations Committee that the war against Iran has cost $37.5 billion so far, up from a previous estimate of $29 billion, and defended an additional $67 billion request described as "an urgent and necessary injection of funds" to restock weapons. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand shot back: "You are asking for unlimited money for bombs, when people can't feed their families." The previous weekend three U.S. service members were killed in an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan and a fourth died in Iraq; Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since May.

On July 23 the House passed, 214-208, H.Con.Res. 89, a concurrent resolution by Rep. Pramila Jayapal calling on the president to end the war, with four Republicans in favor: Brian Fitzpatrick, Thomas Massie, Warren Davidson and Tom Barrett. The same day the Senate fell short, 47-49, on a motion to discharge S.J.Res. 180, Sen. Chris Van Hollen's joint resolution and the only measure that would have carried the force of law: Susan Collins voted yes, John Fetterman and Bill Cassidy no, while Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski, who had backed the earlier text, were absent. "This is a strategic blunder on a massive scale," Van Hollen said. Trump had formally notified Congress on July 10 that hostilities had resumed; Rep. Gregory Meeks introduced a resolution to authorize the House to sue the administration over its disregard of June's resolution.

A Congress that votes by majority to end a war but cannot turn that vote into a binding act, and that debates funding the conflict in the same week, captures the condition of the legislative branch: the constitutional power to declare war survives as a statement of intent, while the decisions stay with the executive.

On the evening of July 16, Trump addressed the nation from the White House, warning of "shocking vulnerabilities in our election infrastructure" and urging Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register and photo ID to vote. The White House released four sets of declassified documents on alleged vulnerabilities in electronic voting systems, China's acquisition of "220 million U.S. voter files," an investigation in Michigan and noncitizens on voter rolls: according to the Department of Homeland Security there are 278,000 of them, 190,832 in California alone.

The Associated Press wrote that the speech "did not produce evidence that votes had been manipulated or that the election outcome had been altered." FactCheck.org noted that state voter files are largely public and for sale, that a 2021 intelligence assessment found China did not try to change the 2020 outcome, and that the Michigan case, fake registrations in Muskegon in 2020, was closed by the FBI in September 2025 with no improper votes. David Becker of the Center for Election Innovation & Research called the release "a dud"; election officials in Nevada and Pennsylvania disputed the DHS figures. Senate Majority Leader John Thune repeated that the votes to abolish the filibuster are not there; several broadcasters, including ABC, did not carry the speech on their main channels.

A president who uses the nation's airtime to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote four months before an election, without evidence of manipulation, lays the groundwork for contesting an unfavorable result and justifies federal intervention in election rules. It is the same narrative sequence that preceded 2020, this time deployed from power rather than from the opposition.

On July 14 the Pentagon disclosed that the National Guard mission in the capital, launched in August 2025 as an "anti-crime" operation, has been extended through Inauguration Day 2029, that is, for the rest of Trump's term, unless the president ends it sooner. Under the "summer surge" announced in May, troop numbers have roughly doubled to nearly 5,000 from more than twenty states. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the deployment costs more than $3 million a day.

The extension comes as pressure mounts on Democratic governors who sent contingents: on July 11 Minnesota pulled its troops out early, and Michigan is next in activists' sights. On July 4 the Guard presence had been boosted for the 250th anniversary celebrations. The Washington model, which Trump has said he wants to replicate in other cities, sits alongside the surge of federal agents into Memphis, where, according to NPR, the fall 2025 operation produced mostly immigration arrests, the majority of people without criminal convictions.

A standing military presence in the federal capital, ordered by the executive without any congressional vote and with a horizon that coincides with the end of the term, turns an emergency measure into a permanent feature of the political landscape. The normalization of soldiers in the streets, and their use as leverage in relations with the states, is one of the most closely watched indicators of a democracy's drift toward executive rule.

On July 8, hours after a new wave of U.S. strikes in retaliation for Iranian fire on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 6 and 7, Trump declared the ceasefire in place since June 17 finished: "As far as I'm concerned, it's over." He called negotiations "a waste of time," while saying they could continue, and threatened to reinstate the naval blockade of Iranian ports, which happened on July 14. Central Command reported roughly 90 targets struck in a single night; on July 10 the president formally notified Congress that fighting had resumed in the war that began on February 28 with the joint U.S.-Israeli attack.

The strikes continued for thirteen consecutive nights. Over the weekend of July 18-19 an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan killed 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19; Sgt. Michael Swinton, 30, died in Iraq during the controlled detonation of an Iranian drone. The Houthis hit two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Brent crude rose above $100. On July 27 Trump announced a pause in the bombing, saying it came at the request of the Iranian regime, while Tehran's Foreign Ministry denied it: "no negotiations with the United States at present." At the NATO summit, Secretary General Mark Rutte had called the U.S. strikes "absolutely necessary."

A war resumed by the president's unilateral decision, after a pause the administration had used to claim hostilities had "terminated" for purposes of the War Powers Act's sixty-day clock, shows how deliberation over the use of force now rests entirely with the executive. The human toll and oil above $100 also make it the heaviest variable weighing on the economy and on November's elections.

On the morning of Tuesday, July 7, on Canal Street in Houston's Magnolia Park neighborhood, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in unmarked vehicles stopped a van carrying four workers to a homebuilding job. Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, a 52-year-old Mexican national and father of three who was seeking a work permit, was shot and killed. Federal officials acknowledged he was not the person they were looking for but resembled him. ICE says he "weaponized his vehicle in an attempt to run over an ICE law enforcement officer"; the three passengers, moved to a detention center in Conroe, say the agents were beside the van, not in its path. None of the agents wore body cameras.

Two days later hundreds marched through Magnolia Park, on July 11 hundreds more rallied at City Hall and marched to the federal detention center, and protests continued through the month. Mayor John Whitmire, after first saying the city lacked jurisdiction, announced a local investigation; the Harris County District Attorney opened one of her own. "Why are they hiding the evidence?" asked state Rep. Christina Morales; Rep. Sylvia Garcia confirmed the agents had been looking for someone else. Gov. Greg Abbott did not comment. The family held the funeral on July 18, demanding release of the footage and of the three witnesses, among them the victim's brother.

A man killed by mistake by federal agents without cameras, witnesses held by the very agency involved, and local authorities declaring themselves without jurisdiction: the case sums up the accountability gap of an immigration enforcement apparatus that has grown without checks. When the state's lethal force is not subject to independent review, the line between law enforcement and arbitrary power becomes a matter of trust rather than of law.

The alliance's 36th summit, held July 7-8 in the Turkish capital, reaffirmed the target of 3.5% of GDP in core defense spending plus 1.5% in related investment, yet only five of the 32 members are projected to reach 3.5% in 2026; average spending in Europe and Canada rose to 2.53%, against 3.17% for the United States. The final declaration cites "more than $50 billion in new procurements" and commits allies to 70 billion euros in equipment and training for Ukraine in 2026, to be sustained in 2027. In his bilateral meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump announced a license for Ukraine to produce Patriot systems itself: "Ukraine can't complain about not getting enough — they can make them themselves." Manufacturers Lockheed Martin and RTX said they had not been informed.

The president also used the summit against the allies. He said he was "very upset with NATO" for not helping in the war on Iran, called Spain "a wasted cause" and said he wanted trade with it cut off, and judged Britain's approach "not in the spirit of Winston Churchill"; Keir Starmer replied that the UK would not be pulled into the war. On Greenland he repeated that the island is "very important" to the United States "but it's not important for Denmark"; Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen answered that Greenland is not for sale and that Denmark will defend "every inch of NATO." Rutte conceded that Trump "has a point" about Chinese and Russian ambitions in the Arctic and called the U.S. strikes on Iran "absolutely necessary."

An alliance that raises spending and aid to Kyiv under pressure from Washington, while the American president threatens an ally's territory and punishes those who will not follow his wars, describes the new transatlantic balance: collective deterrence survives, but as a relationship between a sovereign and his tributaries rather than among equals bound by shared rules.

On the evening of July 3, Trump opened the semiquincentennial celebrations with a rally and fireworks at Mount Rushmore, South Dakota. After an opening on American exceptionalism, the speech veered into partisan territory: the president cast communism as the threat hanging over the country, named progressive Democrats and democratic socialists as the "communists" to be defeated, said newcomers who attack the national identity should be expelled, and warned the crowd that the midterms could be lost only if they allowed themselves to lose. CNBC described a "darkly political" speech that evoked one of the ugliest chapters in American history.

The July 4 program was disrupted by extreme heat: Philadelphia canceled its parade, Washington temporarily closed the Great American State Fair on the National Mall and called off the planned parade, while the National Guard presence had been boosted for the occasion. In New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani used his own address to criticize the administration's immigration policies and call on Americans to return to the founding ideals, and in Philadelphia Pope Leo XIV, accepting the Liberty Medal, urged the country to rediscover them. Months earlier the organizers had lost several artists from the concert series after Trump announced he wanted to turn the Mall concert into a rally.

An anniversary meant to be the moment of unity par excellence became a campaign stop and a partisan celebration of national identity, with American exceptionalism recast as membership in one faction. How a country remembers its founding measures the health of its civic compact, and July 4, 2026 showed two Americas that can no longer celebrate together.

On the last day of its term, June 30, 2026, the Supreme Court held unconstitutional Executive Order 14160, signed by Donald Trump on January 20, 2025, to deny citizenship to children born in the United States to parents who are undocumented or only temporarily present. The 194-page decision in Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) was written by Chief Justice John Roberts and joined on constitutional grounds by Sotomayor, Kagan, Barrett and Jackson; Brett Kavanaugh concurred in the judgment on statutory grounds, finding that the order violates the federal citizenship statute (8 U.S.C. §1401(a)) rather than the Fourteenth Amendment. Thomas (joined by Gorsuch, in a 91-page opinion), Alito and, separately, Gorsuch dissented. The order, blocked by the courts from its first days, never took effect.

Roberts reaffirmed the 1898 precedent United States v. Wong Kim Ark: children of parents "unlawfully or temporarily present" satisfy both elements of the Citizenship Clause and "are citizens at birth"; citizenship, "then and now," is "the right to have rights." Alito called the ruling "one of the most important decisions in the history of the Court" and also "a serious mistake," arguing that the amendment covers only children who at birth owe allegiance solely to the United States; Thomas called the majority's history "not historically accurate." According to press accounts, Trump described birthright citizenship as "expensive and unfair" and urged Congress to act, while the Justice Department said it would prioritize investigations of so-called birth tourism.

This is the clearest defeat the executive has suffered before the Court in this term: the claim to redefine by decree who is a citizen was rejected by six justices, including three Trump appointees. The decision sets a substantive limit on presidential power, yet the 5-4 split on the constitutional question and the statutory path Kavanaugh laid out, leaving Congress free to carve out exceptions, show how narrow the margin remains on a principle that had been settled for 128 years.

On June 29, 2026, the Supreme Court decided Trump v. Slaughter: by 6 votes to 3, along ideological lines, it held that the president may remove Federal Trade Commission members at will, overruling the 1935 precedent Humphrey's Executor that for 91 years had allowed Congress to shield multi-member agencies. Rebecca Kelly Slaughter had been fired in March 2025 without any stated cause, in conflict with the 1914 statute permitting removal only for "inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office." "Our Constitution creates three branches, but only one president," Chief Justice Roberts wrote; subordinates who exercise the president's power "are subject to removal by him." The same day, in Trump v. Cook, a different majority (Roberts, Kavanaugh and the three liberal justices) rejected 5-4 the bid to oust Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook: Trump had not given her the procedural protections the statute requires, and accepting his arguments would "transform the Federal Reserve's for-cause protection into at-will employment."

Sonia Sotomayor read her dissent from the bench, a rare gesture: "Put simply, today the majority reshapes our Government," she wrote, warning that "chaos will follow." CBS listed the NLRB, FERC and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission among the agencies now exposed, out of more than two dozen multi-member bodies created by Congress. Slaughter said the ruling "makes it possible for presidents to fire watchdogs who won't put politics over principle, and replace them with lapdogs." Trump celebrated on Truth Social the "Greatest Increase in Presidential Power in the last 100 years" and, on the Fed, announced: "We will take appropriate action immediately." Cook described "an attempt to remove me on a manufactured pretext"; hers is the first attempted firing of a Fed governor in the institution's 112-year history, and Kevin Warsh has just been confirmed as chair in place of Jerome Powell.

The day enshrines the unitary executive theory as living law: agencies Congress designed to be insulated from politics become, in the dissent's words, extensions of presidential will. The exception carved out for the central bank, grounded in Congress's historic choice to insulate monetary policy, rests on procedural and provisional footing, and the promise of fresh action against Cook signals that the line between technical independence and political control will be the next battleground.

In Watson v. Republican National Committee (No. 24-1260), decided June 29, 2026, by 5 votes to 4, the Supreme Court held that federal Election Day statutes do not bar Mississippi from counting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to five business days later. Amy Coney Barrett wrote for the majority, joined by Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson: "nothing in the federal-election day statutes requires ballots to be received by election day"; "Federal law dictates when ballots must be cast, state law governs when they must be received." Alito dissented with Thomas, Gorsuch and, in part, Kavanaugh. The suit had been filed in 2024 by the Republican National Committee and the Mississippi Republican Party, and the Fifth Circuit had sided with them.

The ruling preserves the grace periods that, according to the Court itself, "roughly 30 States" and the District of Columbia use, benefiting servicemembers abroad, rural voters, Native Americans and people with disabilities. Michael Waldman of the Brennan Center said: "This was an easy case, and the Court declined to do the wrong thing." The same day the Court agreed to hear Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota (No. 25-1017), on Arizona's requirement of documentary proof of citizenship to register and on removing noncitizens from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, and declined to review Trump v. Carroll, leaving in place the $5 million sexual abuse and defamation verdict won by writer E. Jean Carroll.

Just over four months before the November 3 midterms, the Court declined to rewrite the rules of mail voting, a constant target of presidential rhetoric about fraud. But the 5-4 vote, with four justices ready to invalidate practices adopted over three decades by state legislatures, and the decision to take up documentary proof of citizenship in the fall show that the fight over who may vote, and how, is moving to the heart of the Court on the eve of the election.

On June 26, 2026, Donald Trump announced on social media that "any Country that imposes such a Tax will immediately be met with a 100% tariff" on goods shipped to the United States, referring to taxes on digital services provided by American companies and singling out European nations that, he said, are discussing "imminent" implementation. The threat came days before the July 4 deadline for implementing the EU-US trade agreement, which caps tariffs on most European exports at 15%. On June 16 the European Parliament had passed the implementing legislation, which eliminates EU tariffs on US industrial goods but allows the Commission to reinstate them from December 31, 2026, if Washington does not lower its tariffs on European steel and aluminum to 15%.

Digital taxes were left out of the pact and remain the main point of friction. On June 15 Emmanuel Macron said in a televised interview that France would not repeal its 3% levy: "tariffs don't do anyone any good, especially tariffs between G7 countries." The United Kingdom has applied a 2% tax on search engines, social media platforms and online marketplaces since 2020. Days earlier, on June 17, Trump had said he would prefer "not having an agreement" even on the USMCA with Canada and Mexico, ahead of the July 1 review. As in August 2025, the White House argues that European digital taxes and regulations are "designed to harm, or discriminate against, American Technology."

The episode shows how the transatlantic relationship is now managed: agreements negotiated for months and ratified by parliaments are reopened with a post, turning trade policy into a lever against allies' fiscal sovereignty. For European democracies, the choice between regulatory autonomy and access to the American market becomes a test of resilience that goes well beyond economics.

On June 25, 2026, the Supreme Court, by 6 votes to 3, allowed the Trump administration to terminate Temporary Protected Status for Haiti and Syria in the consolidated cases Mullin v. Doe and Trump v. Miot. Writing for the majority, Samuel Alito held that the TPS statute bars judicial review of non-constitutional challenges to a country's designation or termination, and that the Haitian plaintiffs' racial discrimination claim was unlikely to succeed: "None of the cited statements by either the President or the Secretary was overtly racial." More than 350,000 Haitians and about 6,100 Syrians are affected; before then-Secretary Kristi Noem began ending designations for 13 countries, nearly 1.3 million people lived in the United States under TPS. USCIS told employers to treat July 1, 2026, as the expiration date.

Elena Kagan, joined by Sotomayor and Jackson, wrote that courts should be able to check whether the secretary followed the steps the law requires, including consultations on country conditions: "Respectfully, I dissent from the Court's decision that they may instead be put on the next plane." DHS general counsel James Percival called many designations "de facto amnesty" and the ruling a win for the rule of law; Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, sponsor of a bill to extend Haitian TPS, warned of a crisis in hospitals and nursing homes. According to press reports, the Haitian plaintiffs had asked the week before that the case be returned to the lower courts, citing documents in which DHS career staff recommended an extension.

The ruling effectively closes the courthouse doors to hundreds of thousands of long-term legal residents and hands the executive nearly unreviewable discretion over who may stay. With the Court having already allowed the termination for Venezuelans, the principle that decisions affecting more than a million people admit no judicial review weakens one of the essential checks on the harshest immigration policy of the modern era.

On June 25, 2026, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani in Boston ruled in a 37-page decision that sections 2 and 3 of Executive Order 14399, "Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections," signed March 31, are "unconstitutional and exceed presidential authority." The order directed the Department of Homeland Security and the Social Security Administration to build a nationwide list of verified adult citizens and told the Postal Service to accept mail ballots only from voters on preapproved federal lists. "No law enacted by Congress delegates authority to control mail-in voting to USPS," the judge wrote, concluding that the provisions "unconstitutionally violate the separation of powers." The injunction covers the 23 states and the District of Columbia that sued and applies to the November 3, 2026, election cycle.

The day before, according to Votebeat, the head of the Postal Service had said the agency would refuse to deliver mail ballots from voters not on federal lists, under rules proposed on May 29. Also on June 24, another judge blocked the 2025 order requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said the administration is confident it will prevail on appeal; government lawyer Stephen Pezzi had assured the court that no one would be prosecuted for violating the order. Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold called the ruling a major victory for American democracy: states, not the president, run elections.

Using the postal system and federal databases to decide who receives a ballot is the executive's most direct intrusion yet into election administration, a power the Constitution assigns to the states and Congress. The ruling restates that boundary four months before the vote, but the speed with which the White House announced an appeal confirms that control over November's voting rules will remain contested to the end.

On June 23, 2026, the Senate adopted by 50 votes to 48 the concurrent resolution already passed by the House on June 3 (215-208) that "directs the President to remove U.S. Armed Forces from hostilities against Iran." Four Republicans, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul, voted with the Democrats; Democrat John Fetterman voted no; Mitch McConnell and Dave McCormick did not vote. In the House, the Republican yes votes came from Tom Barrett, Warren Davidson, Brian Fitzpatrick and Thomas Massie, on the fourth attempt this year and after Speaker Mike Johnson had adjourned the chamber early on May 21 to avoid a vote. "The People's House is sending a message: end this war," Massie said.

As a concurrent resolution, the measure needs no presidential signature but carries no force of law. A White House official said it had "no significance," attributed its passage to "Republican absences," and argued that "hostilities terminated with the ceasefire on April 7th." Trump had branded the four House Republicans "GRANDSTANDERS!" The war, launched on February 28 with joint US-Israeli strikes, was never authorized by Congress: according to Al Jazeera, the Pentagon estimated in May that $29 billion had been spent, with more than 3,400 dead in Iran and at least 13 US soldiers killed, and a Marist poll found 60% disapproval of the president's handling of the conflict.

For the first time in this term both chambers have formally objected to a war begun without authorization, but they did so with the weakest tool available and by two-vote margins. The executive's response, denying that hostilities even exist while negotiating a ceasefire, measures how far the power to declare war, assigned to Congress by Article I, has shrunk to a symbolic gesture.

From June 15 to 17, 2026, G7 leaders met at the Hôtel Royal in Évian-les-Bains, France, in the first summit since the war with Iran began, now in its fifteenth week. Donald Trump, attending his fifth G7, arrived on June 15 after announcing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes; alongside Macron, Merz, Meloni, Starmer, Carney, Takaichi, Costa and von der Leyen sat invited leaders including Zelensky, Modi, Lula, el-Sisi and the rulers of Qatar and the UAE. On June 17, during the dinner Macron hosted at the Palace of Versailles, Trump electronically signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran, countersigned in Tehran by President Masoud Pezeshkian: a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, a gradual reopening of Hormuz, an end to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, the start of nuclear negotiations and waivers on some sanctions, with a pledge to rally a $300 billion reconstruction fund.

Iranian spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei named the text the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," warning that Tehran would monitor US compliance "without any leniency" and that its missile program is not negotiable; chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called it "a record of US failure." According to Al Jazeera, some Republicans also consider the deal too lenient. In their joint statements the Seven welcomed the agreement, reaffirmed Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity with new air defense deliveries and further sanctions on Russian oil and gas, and launched a critical minerals alliance to cut dependence on any single outside supplier below 60% by 2030. No Trump-Zelensky bilateral was on the schedule.

The summit captures an alliance adapting to its most unpredictable member: a war with Iran begun without consulting partners or Congress is wound down with a signature over dinner at Versailles, and the Europeans choose to endorse the outcome in order to stabilize energy and trade. Support for Kyiv survives in the communiqués, but Ukraine's absence from the American priorities confirms that the center of gravity of Western security is increasingly decided outside the consensus of allies.

On June 15, 2026, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced in a video posted to X that the Justice Department is investigating him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom. Federal agents, he said, have sought to question family members, friends and former employees, demanded records and combed through years of documents, "abusing the grand jury process." "Donald Trump isn't just coming after me because of my mean tweets," he said. "He's coming after me because I'm considering running for president," and he told the president to "leave my wife and family out of your personal vendetta." According to CBS News, the probes are being handled by the U.S. Attorney's Office in Sacramento, at least one has been underway for about a year, and one concerns his wife's taxes; the department declined to comment. The governor's office filed a public records request for all DOJ communications mentioning them.

A Newsom adviser said the probe expanded after Todd Blanche, Trump's former defense lawyer, took over as acting attorney general; the week before, Trump nominated him to lead the department. The case joins a pattern: former FBI director James Comey, indicted in 2025 in a case later thrown out because prosecutor Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed, was indicted a second time in April over a photo of seashells spelling "86 47"; the investigation of then-Fed chair Jerome Powell was dropped in April only after a senator vowed to block his successor's confirmation. The Washington Post calculated on June 18 that Trump has threatened or prosecuted more than four dozen people with a record of resisting him.

A federal investigation of the governor of the largest state, disclosed by its target as he weighs a 2028 run, marks the shift from threats against former officials to the use of criminal tools against prospective electoral rivals. That the news comes from Newsom rather than the department, and that no target letter has been issued, makes it impossible to tell a legitimate inquiry from intimidation: precisely the ambiguity on which the politicization of justice thrives.

On June 11, 2026, Reuters published an investigation into the pardon system in Donald Trump's second term, based on clemency records, lobbying and campaign finance data and more than 80 interviews. Reporters identified 290 "influencers" who intervened 624 times on behalf of 197 successful clemency bids, including at least 110 known allies of the president and 11 people who had themselves been pardoned; intermediaries charged up to $2 million per engagement, and lobbying firms were offered $5 million to get a case before Trump. According to summaries of the investigation, 96% of grants failed to meet the guidelines the Justice Department has applied for decades. By the time of the report, Trump had granted clemency to more than 1,700 people, most of them January 6, 2021, defendants.

A week earlier, on June 4, the White House had announced a "full, complete, and unconditional" pardon for Stephen E. Buyer, a former Republican congressman from Indiana sentenced in 2023 to 22 months on four counts of securities fraud tied to the T-Mobile-Sprint merger, with $765,912 in restitution. The official list of the Office of the Pardon Attorney records that single act for the month. The traditional review by the Pardon Attorney, whose career head Elizabeth Oyer was fired in 2025, has effectively been replaced by personal and political channels; House Judiciary Democrats, building on the Reuters data in an August report, would put the restitution, fines and forfeitures erased by pardons at nearly $1.7 billion.

The pardon power is one of the few the Constitution grants the president without checks, which is exactly why its conversion into a market for access is an indicator of institutional decay: when clemency rewards connections and donations rather than contrition and justice, a tool designed to correct the criminal system becomes a way to place allies and donors beyond the reach of the law.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted June 8-11, 2026, among 1,340 adults (margin of error ±3 points) puts Donald Trump's approval at 36% against 59% disapproval: the lowest of his second term, with a 23-point spread that is the widest Marist has ever recorded for him in either presidency. Only 33% approve of his handling of the economy (60% disapprove), his worst reading ever in this series; 64% of independents and 17% of Republicans disapprove of the president, 65% and 22% of his economic record. Thirty-four percent call gas prices "a major strain" on their household budget, even though AAA reports the average price has fallen about 40 cents a gallon since May, and two thirds of Americans say costs have affected their vacation plans.

Other surveys point the same way. Marquette Law School (May 20-26) measures 38% approval and 62% disapproval, with 22% on inflation and 19% on fuel prices; Harvard CAPS/Harris (May 29-31, registered voters) shows 43% to 53%, with a net minus 26 on tariffs and trade; I&I/TIPP (May 26-28) records 37% to 54%. The backdrop is the war with Iran, launched February 28, which pushed energy prices higher: in Marist polling, disapproval of the president's handling of the conflict has climbed to 60%, and among Republicans from 15% to 22%.

Five months before the midterms, presidential standing is squeezed by inflation, war and tariffs, that is, by the consequences of decisions taken with the fewest institutional constraints. Recent history suggests that it is precisely when the polls turn against it that an executive accustomed to governing by decree reaches for new levers, from voting rules to the agencies, to compensate for lost popular legitimacy.

On June 3, 2026, Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14410, "Implementing Schedule Policy/Career in the Excepted Service," moving about 8,000 federal positions into the new category that succeeds the Schedule F of 2020. A 200-page appendix lists the posts agency by agency: according to the White House, 97% are GS-15 or Senior Leader, including, by way of example, the NIH deputy directors for research, NOAA's chief of staff and science administrators at the National Science Foundation; the State Department reported moving 100 positions. Agencies had seven days, until June 10, to reclassify the employees, who lose Title 5 protections and the right to appeal suspensions, demotions and firings to the Merit Systems Protection Board, with no advance notice and no access to the evidence against them. OPM had initially estimated that 50,000 positions would be reclassified.

OPM Director Scott Kupor argued that senior career officials "can be held to the same performance expectations" as the rest of the American workforce, and the regulation in force since March 9 "explicitly prohibits political patronage, loyalty tests, or political discrimination." Everett Kelley, president of the AFGE union, replied: "This is a blatant attempt to corrupt the federal government by eliminating employees' due process rights," warning that those who report waste or fraud "will now be afraid for their jobs if they speak out." Doreen Greenwald of NTEU said litigation, dormant since 2025 pending implementation, would resume; under the OPM rules, whistleblower complaints now go to the agency's general counsel rather than the Office of Special Counsel.

With this order, one of the central planks of the plan to remake the executive branch is carried out: the tier of managers who turn laws into policy is removed from the merit system created in 1883 and made dependent on loyalty to the top. Even if the numbers fall short of the initial estimates, the principle established, a civil service fireable at will at the levels that matter, is the precondition for turning the administration into a personal instrument of the president.

Judge Leonie Brinkema of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia temporarily blocked the creation of the $1.776 billion fund the Justice Department announced on May 18 as part of the settlement under which Trump dropped his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over the leak of his tax returns. The order bars the administration from taking any further step to set up or run the fund and schedules a June 12 hearing on whether to extend the freeze.

The suit was filed by former Capitol Police officers, who argue the administration exceeded its statutory authority by creating a compensation mechanism Congress never authorized. The government replied that eligibility carries no partisan requirements. On June 1 the Justice Department said the president would abide by the order.

The case tests the principle that only Congress can appropriate public money: a fund of nearly two billion dollars created through a settlement, for a category of beneficiaries defined by the executive, is a precedent the courts must now decide whether to tolerate.

U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols in Washington denied the Democrats' request to preliminarily block Trump's March 31 executive order on voting by mail. The judge found the challenge premature because the order's directives have not yet been carried out by federal agencies: "Plaintiffs may, of course, renew their motions if and when those future actions occur."

The order directs the federal government to build citizenship lists for the states, instructs the Postal Service to deliver election mail only to people on state voter rolls, and tasks the Justice Department with investigating state and local officials who do not comply, with the possibility of rescinding federal funds. The ruling did not address whether the order is lawful. A parallel case brought by 23 states and the District of Columbia was heard in Boston on June 2; five lawsuits in total are pending.

Five months before the midterms, election administration formally remains in the hands of the states, but the federal executive is building the tools to condition it: citizenship lists, control of election mail, the threat of investigations against election officials.

According to Der Spiegel, on May 22 Alexander Velez-Green, adviser and envoy of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, told allies at NATO headquarters that Washington intends to "drastically reduce" its contribution to the NATO Force Model, the force plan for a crisis in Europe adopted in 2022. The cuts cover strategic bombers, about one-third of fighter jets and armed drones, and a complete withdrawal of submarines and reconnaissance drones. No full list and no timeline were provided.

Europeans must table their offers by the Force Sourcing Conference in early June. Velez-Green said allies must fill the gaps as quickly as possible and that the United States will cooperate with those who move fast, a line some attendees read as an indirect threat. One diplomat called the corrections "substantial" and said allies are "under pressure." The cut comes on top of the Pentagon's May decision to reduce U.S. brigade combat teams in Europe from four to three, with Supreme Allied Commander Grynkewich warning that Europe "should absolutely expect further redeployments."

The United States used to supply about half of the Alliance's military capabilities. The shift from burden sharing to burden shifting redraws NATO as a variable-geometry guarantee, decided unilaterally in Washington and communicated to allies after the fact.

Trump ordered 5,000 U.S. troops to Poland just weeks after directing the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany. The about-face left NATO allies bewildered. Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said the situation is "confusing indeed, and not always easy to navigate."

The Poland deployment had been canceled by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth as a reaction to remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, before Trump reversed the decision. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the underlying trajectory: "There are going to be eventually less U.S. troops in Europe than there has historically been for a variety of reasons."

The administration has announced an incremental withdrawal from European security, signaling that American support will not be guaranteed even in wartime. Carnegie Endowment: Trump has transformed NATO "from an instrument of deterrence against Russia into an instrument of coercion against Europe."

The Trump administration is advancing plans to admit an additional 10,000 White South Africans (Afrikaners) as refugees. The refugee admissions cap rises from the record-low 7,500 to 17,500, with the additional 10,000 slots reserved exclusively for Afrikaners.

Of roughly 6,000 refugees resettled between October 2025 and April 2026, all but three were from South Africa. During the same period, the administration blocked refugee admissions from all other countries, including those fleeing wars and persecution.

Trump claims Afrikaners face "racial persecution" and "genocide" in South Africa - claims rejected by the U.N. Human Rights Office. Democracy Now called the policy "clear racism": refugees blocked everywhere except for Whites.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged 11% in May to 44.2 - the lowest reading in the 75-year history of the survey. 57% of consumers report that high prices are hurting their finances.

Gasoline prices have risen from $3.20 to $4.55 per gallon since Trump's military operations against Iran in February. Inflation is accelerating across services and consumer goods. Credit card debt hit a record $1.3 trillion.

The data consolidates the picture of eroding support: Trump's economic approval (31% in early April) has become the main driver of his collapsing overall rating, now at 36.5% (Silver Bulletin) with a -24-point disapproval margin.

The Justice Department filed on May 19 an "unprecedented" settlement closing Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over the leak of his tax returns. The agreement, signed by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, "forever bars and precludes" the U.S. government from examining or prosecuting Trump, his sons, and the Trump Organization on pending tax issues. The ban extends to family members, trusts, affiliates, and related entities.

Trump, under the official terms, receives only a "formal apology" with no direct monetary payment. But the agreement simultaneously establishes an "Anti-Weaponization Fund" of $1.776 billion to compensate those who claim they were persecuted by the DOJ, running through December 2028. The publicly disclosed terms of the fund do not bar Trump or his family from receiving payments.

Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick has said he will work to "sink" the agreement. Tax and legal experts have called it "unheard of" and "unprecedented": a sitting president using the DOJ to grant tax immunity to himself and his family, while creating a fund that could also reimburse January 6, 2021 Capitol attack participants. The institutional capture described in the book reaches one of its most explicit moments with this episode.

Jerome Powell announced he will remain on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors even after his term as Chair ends on May 15, citing "unprecedented" legal attacks on the central bank's independence by the Trump administration.

"My concern is really about the series of legal attacks which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors," Powell said. "These legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our 113-year history, and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions."

Republican Senator Thom Tillis expressed concern: "If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none." On April 15, Trump had threatened on Fox Business: "Then I'll have to fire him." The parallel case Trump v. Cook (firing of Governor Lisa Cook) is pending before the Supreme Court.

On May 8, Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to his request for a three-day ceasefire (May 9-11) and an exchange of 1,000 prisoners each. Trump called it potentially "the beginning of the end" of the war. The truce coincides with May 9, Russia's Victory Day commemorating the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany.

Putin had offered Trump a temporary truce in honor of the holiday during a phone call in late April. Zelensky thanked Trump and the American team for "effective diplomatic engagement," calling it a U.S.-mediated process.

However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had earlier tempered expectations, admitting that U.S. mediation efforts "have not led to a fruitful outcome so far" and that negotiations were "stagnating." Trump's announcement looks more like a symbolic gesture for domestic consumption than a genuine strategic breakthrough.

The Court of International Trade (CIT) issued a 2-1 decision finding that the new tariffs imposed by the administration are not justified under Section 122 of the Trade Act, and issued an injunction barring the government from collecting them. The ruling follows a March 2026 lawsuit by 24 states - many of which were also party to the IEEPA tariff case.

The blow compounds the Supreme Court ruling on February 20, 2026 (Learning Resources v. Trump, 6-3), which had already struck down tariffs imposed through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Over $160 billion had been illegally collected.

The U.S. average effective tariff rate, before the legal collapse, had climbed to nearly 17% - the highest level since the 1930s. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: nearly 90% of the cost was borne by American firms and consumers. Tax Foundation: $1,000 in additional household costs in 2025, rising to $1,300 in 2026.

A federal judge in New York blocked Trump's invocation of the Alien Enemies Act (1798 law), ruling that the administration had shown no evidence of a "foreign invasion" to justify using the law for mass deportations.

The ruling fits into a pattern of growing tension between the executive and judiciary on immigration. Over 300 federal judges have already ruled against the administration on the mandatory bond issue for migrants, while only 14 have ruled in favor.

The Supreme Court had ruled on April 7 (5-4, with conservative Barrett dissenting) to make group-based challenges harder, requiring each potential deportee to file an individual habeas corpus petition and convince a judge they are not a member of Tren de Aragua. Between April and May, district courts decided about 90% of cases against the administration.

A federal court threw out all charges against the "Broadview Six" - six protesters accused of obstructing an ICE facility in Chicago - during a heated hearing in which Justice Department officials apologized for "egregious misconduct" in securing the indictments.

U.S. District Judge April Perry excoriated prosecutors who used illegal tactics: the original grand jury had refused to indict ("no true bill"), and prosecutors allegedly removed the dissenting jurors before asking the remaining ones to indict.

The case adds to a growing list of failed political prosecutions: on April 28, James Comey was re-indicted over an Instagram post showing seashells spelling "8647"; New York Attorney General Letitia James had been charged with fraud (charges later dismissed); a D.C. grand jury refused to indict Senators Kelly, Slotkin, and four other members of Congress over a video stating service members do not have to obey unlawful orders.

The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll released May 3 shows Trump's disapproval hitting a new high for his second term. Pew Research Center (April 20-26 survey) recorded 34% approval, the lowest of his second term.

The numbers confirm the trend: NYT/Siena -22 points net, AtlasIntel -20, CBS News/YouGov -26. The average of recent polls shows net approval at -20.1. Trump is also losing ground on perceptions of personal traits (honesty, leadership, empathy).

The Fulcrum called the moment "the most precarious of his presidency," with approval plummeting to 36%. The combined effects of the Iran war, the record shutdown, inflation, and controversial ICE policies are eroding even the Republican electoral base.

Masked ICE agents arrested Chidozie Wilson Okeke, an undocumented Nigerian immigrant, detaining him in his car in Bushwick (Brooklyn). Community members saw the agents enter a hospital connected to the arrest and contacted an activist group that tracks ICE: within minutes, about 200 people had gathered outside the building.

The NYPD has been accused by government officials, protesters, and community members of facilitating ICE's arrest. Mayor Zohran Mamdani's pledges to uphold sanctuary city policies, made throughout his campaign and the early months of his incumbency, are now under scrutiny.

The episode fits a now-familiar pattern: after the protests following the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minnesota (January 2026) and the subsequent "No Kings" mass mobilizations, ICE promised "quieter enforcement" but the aggressive tactics continue.

Thousands of Americans took to the streets across the country for May Day. Organizers called for a boycott of work, school, and shopping to protest Trump's policies, picking up the mantle of the "No Kings" mass mobilizations on March 28 (over 8 million participants at 3,300 sites).

The nonviolent resistance movement is reshaping the political landscape: under pressure from catastrophic polls and continuous protests, the administration has already made tactical concessions, such as pausing Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota.

The May 1 mobilization, though smaller than the March "No Kings" rallies, demonstrated the movement's ability to sustain participation outside marquee programmed events - a key characteristic of successful nonviolent resistance campaigns.

President Trump signed on April 30 the funding bill passed by the House, ending the partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown after 76 days - the longest in U.S. history. On March 29 it had already surpassed the 2025 shutdown (44 days) to become the all-time record.

The fallout on transportation was severe: three- to four-hour security lines at the busiest airports as unpaid TSA officers called off in droves. More than 1,110 TSA officers quit since the shutdown began on February 14. New hires must undergo 4-6 months of training before they can perform regular airport duties.

On March 27, Trump had signed an executive order directing DHS to resume TSA payroll on March 30. AFGE: the shutdown caused damage "that will be felt for years" on TSA's operational capacity. Democrats ultimately agreed to reopen without achieving the demanded ICE reforms.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on April 29 over the Trump administration's bid to strip 350,000 Haitian and 6,100 Syrian immigrants of Temporary Protected Status (TPS), the temporary humanitarian protection. It is one of four major Trump-related cases expected to be decided by the end of May.

The other three pending cases involve: the birthright citizenship executive order (during April 1 arguments, the majority of justices appeared skeptical), the attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook (Trump v. Cook), and the removal of an FTC commissioner.

On emergency requests, Trump has filed 31 petitions with the Supreme Court since February 2025, 97% of which claim judges are improperly interfering with presidential power. The Court has largely accommodated Trump via the shadow docket, even reversing decisions by Republican-appointed judges.

Former FBI Director James Comey has been indicted a second time - this time for posting on Instagram an image of seashells arranged to spell the number "8647," which the DOJ interpreted as a threat to the President (86 is slang for "eliminate," 47 refers to Trump as the 47th president).

Comey's previous indictment (false statements to Congress and obstruction) was dismissed in fall 2025 by Senior District Judge Cameron McGowan Currie due to the unlawful appointment of prosecutor Lindsey Halligan. This new charge comes just days after Trump publicly demanded the DOJ act "now" against Comey and other political opponents.

The sequence fits the pattern described in the book: politicization of the DOJ, a dedicated prosecution group targeting "enemies," indictments that repeatedly fail in court but still serve to intimidate and exhaust the targets. Comey reaffirmed his innocence in a Good Morning America interview on May 18.

At 8:40 p.m. on April 25, a gunman, Cole Tomas Allen (31, of Torrance, California), walked through a metal detector with a long gun at the security checkpoint of the Washington Hilton, where the White House Correspondents' Dinner was underway. He opened fire on Secret Service agents. One agent, wearing a ballistic vest, was shot in the chest. The Secret Service returned fire, wounding Allen with minor injuries.

Trump, Melania, Vice President JD Vance, and several Cabinet members were evacuated. Allen, who earned a degree in mechanical engineering at Caltech (2017) and a master's in computer science at California State University, Dominguez Hills (2025), worked part-time as a teacher and developed video games.

He has been charged with attempted assassination of the President of the United States, transportation of a firearm in interstate commerce with intent to commit a felony, and discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence. After the shooting, conspiracy theories spread online; the incident - the second in two years after the Butler attack - fuels the climate of political violence analyzed in the book.

The Trump administration filed an appeal on April 15 to a federal court to restore the $2 billion freeze on Harvard research funding, after federal Judge Allison Burroughs had ruled in September 2025 that the government's demands and funding freeze violated free speech and due process.

On the same day, Trump - interviewed by Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business - openly threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he did not step down when his term as chair ended (May 15): "Then I'll have to fire him."

The two moves strike on the same day at the two pillars of separation between political power and independent institutions: academia/research and the central bank. Republican Senator Thom Tillis denounced the push to "end Federal Reserve independence."

The Islamabad Talks of April 11-12, 2026, mediated by Pakistan to stabilize the April 8 ceasefire and negotiate a permanent peace, ended without a deal after about 21 hours of negotiations. The 300-member U.S. delegation was led by Vice President JD Vance, alongside special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; the 70-member Iranian team was led by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The unresolved issues include Iran's nuclear program, the status of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and frozen assets. The U.S. insisted on phased relief tied to compliance; Iran demanded comprehensive lifting of sanctions and release of $6 billion in frozen assets as a precondition.

The two-week ceasefire holds technically, but the breakdown of negotiations leaves open the possibility of a renewed conflict, after the nearly 3,400 deaths of the first round of war (February 28 - April 8).

Less than two hours before the deadline at which he had threatened to annihilate Iran, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. The deal, brokered by Pakistan, includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran will allow safe passage of vessels in coordination with its armed forces. Permanent peace negotiations will begin Friday in Islamabad.

The war's death toll is devastating: nearly 3,400 killed according to the human rights group HRANA, including over 1,600 civilians. The Iranian Red Crescent reported over 2,000 dead since joint U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28. Over 1,500 people have been killed in Lebanon, and 23 in Israel.

Iran stressed that "this does not signify the termination of the war" and that "our hands remain upon the trigger." Israel said it supports Trump's decision but specified the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. Trump claimed success: "We have already met and exceeded all military objectives."

Meanwhile, over 400 Iranians are in ICE custody in the U.S. Deportation flights to Tehran, which began in late 2025, have been suspended due to the war. Two Iranian Christian converts are detained by ICE in Houston: one faces execution if deported. An Iranian asylum seeker has been held in El Paso for months despite release orders.

On day 39 of the conflict, Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran: open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 PM ET Tuesday, April 8, or face strikes on power plants and bridges. In a shocking statement, Trump declared: "A whole civilization will die tonight." Experts warn that threats to civilian infrastructure could constitute war crimes.

Iran rejected the U.S. proposal for a 45-day ceasefire, demanding instead a permanent end to the war, sanctions relief, and a protocol for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are mediating. Iran sent a 10-point response to the U.S. via Pakistan.

U.S. forces began striking Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal. The conflict, which began on February 28 with the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, continues to expand across the region.

FOIA documents obtained by Democracy Forward reveal the U.S. Marshals Service deputized Elon Musk's private security detail as "special deputy marshals" in February 2025. Training waivers were granted: members lacked both a "basic law enforcement training program" and one year of law enforcement experience.

The stated justification was "significant and credible threats" against Musk. Separately, a judge rejected the government's attempt to dismiss the EFF (Electronic Frontier Foundation) lawsuit against OPM, DOGE, and Musk over illegal disclosure of federal employees' personal data in violation of the Privacy Act of 1974.

Musk departed DOGE on May 28, 2025 after roughly 130 days, but operations continue with a target end date of July 4, 2026. The original savings goal was $2 trillion.

ICE agents entered a Louisiana Army base and detained Annie Ramos, 22, a college student brought from Honduras as a toddler with no criminal record. Ramos was at the base to get a military ID. She and her husband, Staff Sgt. Matthew Blank (23, a 5-year Army veteran), had hired an immigration attorney and their green card application was about to be filed.

Ramos was led away in shackles and taken to the South Louisiana ICE Processing Center in Basile, over an hour away. Blank, who is preparing to deploy, said: "She got ripped away from me."

The case follows the broader pattern from Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota (December 2025 - February 2026), during which ICE agents killed two U.S. citizens: Renee Good (January 7) and Alex Pretti (January 24). The latest poll shows 65% of Americans believe ICE has "gone too far" (up from 54% in June 2025); 91% of Democrats and 66% of independents disapprove.

After the backlash from Operation Metro Surge (Minneapolis, December 2025 - February 2026), which involved thousands of federal agents and resulted in the deaths of two U.S. citizens, ICE announced a shift to "quieter enforcement" nationwide.

Despite the rhetorical shift, ICE continues to arrest many immigrants with no criminal record. The Minneapolis operation included agents slamming protesters to the ground, deploying tear gas near schools, and dragging people from cars.

White House border czar Tom Homan had announced the operation's end in February 2026, calling it a success. But the strategic pivot reveals growing political pressure: mass protests, unfavorable polls, and outrage over the killings of Good and Pretti forced the administration to at least modify the optics of enforcement.

Exactly one year after "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, when Trump signed Executive Order 14257 imposing tariffs on nearly all countries (10% minimum, with higher rates for major trading partners), economic data paints a devastating picture: manufacturing employment declined by 89,000 jobs between April 2025 and February 2026.

Total foreign direct investment in 2025 was below the 10-year average of $320.7 billion and lower than every year from 2021 to 2024. The Supreme Court had struck down the IEEPA-based tariffs on February 20, 2026 in a 6-3 ruling, finding that over $160 billion had been illegally collected.

Fed Chair Powell noted elevated inflation in consumer goods driven by tariff effects, with peak impact expected between April and October 2026. Trump called the Supreme Court ruling "a disgrace" and said he was "ashamed of certain members of the court." Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum) remain in place.

Trump's overall approval has fallen below 40% for the first time in his second term: 40.9% approve vs. 56.8% disapprove (Silver Bulletin), a net approval of -16.9 points. The Issues & Insights/TIPP poll (March 31 - April 2) shows 39% favorable and 53% unfavorable.

Approval on handling the economy hit a career low of 31% (CNN poll). Strong Republican approval dropped from 52% in January to 43%. Key drivers of the collapse include the Iran war, the government shutdown (the longest in U.S. history at 44+ days), and rising gas prices.

The data confirms the pattern described in the book: democratic erosion and aggressive policies ultimately erode even the president's base of electoral support.

U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss ruled Executive Order 14290 (May 2025), which cut all federal funding to NPR and PBS, unconstitutional as it violates the First Amendment. The ruling represents a significant victory for press freedom at a time of unprecedented administration attacks on the media.

Meanwhile, the partial DHS shutdown reached 44 days, becoming the longest in U.S. history. 11% of TSA workers (~3,200) missed work on a single Monday; at least 458 quit since the shutdown began. Major airports including Houston, Atlanta, and BWI experienced hours-long security lines.

ICE agents were deployed to airports to supplement TSA. Trump ordered TSA workers to be paid, reducing call-outs by 43%. Democrats ultimately agreed to reopen DHS without achieving their demanded ICE reforms.

Millions of Americans took to the streets in more than 3,200 events across all 50 states in the largest single-day nonviolent protest in U.S. history. The "No Kings" movement, now the third major anti-Trump demonstration since January 2025, drew an estimated nine million participants nationwide.

The flagship rally in St. Paul, Minnesota, drew over 200,000 people — surpassing the 2017 Women's March — with Bruce Springsteen performing his single "Streets of Minneapolis" about the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal officers. Senator Bernie Sanders told the crowd: "We will not allow this country to descend into authoritarianism or oligarchy."

Demonstrators protested ICE enforcement tactics, the Iran war, the rollback of transgender rights, and the broader erosion of democratic norms. International solidarity rallies took place in over a dozen countries, with people in constitutional monarchies calling the protests "No Tyrants." In Los Angeles, tear gas was deployed near a federal detention center.

The U.S. Supreme Court delivered a 6-3 ruling curbing federal judges' ability to issue nationwide injunctions blocking Trump's policies — a major victory for the administration that fundamentally alters the balance of power between the judiciary and the executive branch. The ruling came in the birthright citizenship case.

However, in a separate case, the Court ruled against Trump's effort to freeze $10 billion in federal child care and social service funding to blue states. Trump attacked the Court: the same president who has filed 31 emergency requests to the Supreme Court since February 2025, with 97% claiming judges are improperly interfering with presidential power.

Internal divisions spilled into public view as liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh clashed openly over the Court's handling of Trump's emergency requests. Jackson accused the majority of rubber-stamping executive overreach in a stinging dissent.

The Trump administration escalated its assault on press freedom. The DOJ filed a brief arguing that when journalists solicit non-public information from individuals legally obligated not to disclose it, "that solicitation is not protected by the First Amendment" — a position that effectively criminalizes a core function of investigative journalism.

A federal judge struck down Pentagon restrictions on reporters seeking "unauthorized" information in a lawsuit brought by the New York Times, but the Pentagon immediately reissued similar restrictions and pledged to appeal. The administration has also filed a $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal.

Earlier in March, ICE agents detained reporter Estefany Rodríguez while she was driving, surrounding her car with trucks. According to RSF (Reporters Without Borders), the Trump administration has deployed "8 ways to shrink the space for press freedom — literally."

On day 24 of the conflict, Trump announced a pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6. U.S. forces have struck roughly 7,800 targets since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. Iran denied that any negotiations are taking place, calling Trump "deceitful."

More than 1,750 people have been killed in Iran since the war began, including 217 children. Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed 1,116 and injured 3,229 since March 2. On March 27, U.S. service members were injured in an attack on a Saudi air base — the war continues to spread across the region.

Gas prices have surged due to the conflict, and Trump's approval on handling prices and inflation has plunged to net -39, the worst rating on any single issue ever recorded. Only 28% of Americans approve of how the president is handling inflation, while 67% disapprove.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been dismantled months ahead of its planned end date, with the government's top personnel official confirming it no longer exists. Elon Musk, in an interview, described the effort as "only somewhat successful" and said he would not do it again.

The DOGE website claims savings of $215 billion through job cuts, contract cancellations, lease terminations, and grant rescissions. Independent analysts estimate actual savings between $100-200 billion, though figures remain highly uncertain. A year on, the toll on workers' lives is clear — what was saved is not.

On March 23, a federal judge (U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan) allowed a lawsuit to proceed accusing Musk of unconstitutionally exercising executive power during his time as presidential adviser, denying the government's request to fully dismiss the case. Nonprofits claimed their members were harmed by federal funding cuts and mass firings.

The Supreme Court ruled that the President cannot use IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) to impose tariffs, dealing a blow to Trump's preferred legal authority for his trade war. The White House immediately pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a 15% tariff through this alternate legal pathway.

In March, the administration announced new Section 301 investigations into allegedly unfair trading practices by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Japan, the EU, and dozens of other economies. Trump's tariffs are the largest U.S. tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, amounting to an average $1,500 per household in 2026.

U.S. imports from China have fallen to roughly half their year-ago levels — depths not seen since the 2009 financial crisis. Experts warn the tariffs are fueling inflation, cutting wages, and weakening the stock market.

A federal judge issued a 69-page order restricting ICE from transferring detainees out of Minnesota and requiring meaningful access to legal counsel. "Due process is not a game of keep-away," the judge wrote, noting ICE "recognizes detainees' right to access counsel in theory and written policy, but not in practice."

A record 73,000 people are now being held in immigration detention — an increase of over 75% since Trump took office. Vice President Vance pledged to deploy over 10,000 additional ICE agents who would go "door to door" to carry out mass deportations. 2025 was the deadliest year for ICE detention on record, and 2026 is on pace to be worse.

By January 2026, ICE alone had deported roughly 540,000 people. Border crossings have plummeted, arrests have doubled, and the detention population is at an all-time high.

Bipartisan War Powers resolutions to limit Trump's military operations in Iran are headed for defeat in Congress. The Senate will vote Wednesday and the House Thursday, but Republicans have rallied behind the president. Even if the resolutions pass, they would not reach the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto.

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia called it "an illegal war," stating: "The Constitution says no declaration of war without Congress." Senator Mark Warner, following a classified briefing, said: "There was no imminent threat to the United States of America by the Iranians. There was a threat to Israel."

According to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, Trump's approval has dropped to 38%, with 59% disapproving - a record low for this term. 51% "strongly disapprove," the first time it has exceeded 50% in either term. Only 29% of independents approve of Trump.

The DOJ dropped cases against four major law firms (Perkins Coie, WilmerHale, Jenner & Block, Susman Godfrey) that had won rulings against Trump's executive orders. Other prestigious firms agreed to provide nearly $1 billion in pro bono legal work for Trump instead of going to court.

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran enters day three with dramatic escalation. Six American service members have been killed and 18 seriously wounded since the conflict began. In Kuwait, three U.S. jets were mistakenly shot down by the allied nation's air defenses.

Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and attacked ships attempting passage. Traffic through the strait has completely stopped, blocking the flow of one-fifth of the world's oil and sending prices surging. Iran also struck diplomatic targets, including a drone attack on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh.

At least 787 people have been killed in Iran according to state media and the Iranian Red Crescent, including over 160 students (mostly girls) and 14 teachers in an elementary school struck Saturday. Golestan Palace in Tehran, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, was damaged.

Secretary of State Rubio said 9,000 Americans have been evacuated from the Middle East in 72 hours, with another 1,500 requesting help. The Dow Jones plunged over 1,000 points (2.1%), while more than a million people were stranded with 1,900 flights canceled.

The United States and Israel launched a massive joint military attack on Iran - the most sweeping American military operation in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, was killed along with his daughter and grandchild. At least 40 Iranian officials died, including the defense minister and chief of staff.

Trump declared in an 8-minute video at 2:30 AM that the objective is "regime change" in Iran. He urged Iranians to "take over your government." Over 100 children were killed in a strike on an elementary school in Minab. The Red Crescent reported 201 civilians killed and 747 wounded on the first day.

Democrats reacted with outrage. Senator Ed Markey called the attack "illegal and unconstitutional" because it was not approved by Congress. Schumer demanded an immediate briefing for all senators. Democrats, along with Republicans Rand Paul and Thomas Massie, are demanding a War Powers vote to constrain Trump. Massie: "I am opposed to this War. This is not 'America First.'"

Iran responded with missiles and drones, hitting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf, including the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The conflict has spread across the region. Republican leaders Thune and Johnson support Trump's action.

One year after Elon Musk's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) was established, Office of Personnel Management data reveals the scale of cuts: 9% of the civilian federal workforce has been eliminated, with approximately 300,000 layoffs announced. The most affected agencies include USAID, CFPB, HHS, and the Department of Education.

The cuts occurred in overlapping phases: "pulse check" emails to verify employee existence, voluntary resignation offers, then mass layoffs. Musk had set a goal of cutting $1 trillion from the nearly $7 trillion budget, also acknowledging errors like canceling Ebola prevention programs while cutting USAID.

Some former federal employees are finding new roles in the private sector, but many struggle to reintegrate. Paradoxically, the Trump administration is now reaching out to some employees laid off by DOGE asking if they want to return, after discovering some functions were essential.

Trump stated that DOGE's work will "conclude" by July 4, 2026, coinciding with the proposed "Great American Fair" for the 250th anniversary of the United States.

Federal Judge Brian E. Murphy of Massachusetts ruled that the Trump administration's policy of deporting immigrants to "third countries" with which they have no ties is unlawful. "It is not fine, nor is it legal" to send migrants to "an unfamiliar and potentially dangerous country" without any legal recourse, Murphy wrote in his ruling.

The ruling concerns the arrangement with El Salvador to detain Venezuelan migrants in the notorious CECOT mega-prison, and attempts to deport people to war-torn South Sudan. Murphy ruled that migrants have the right to "meaningful notice" and an opportunity to object before being removed to a third country.

The judge accused the Trump administration of "repeatedly violating - or trying to violate" his orders. In March, the Defense Department had deported at least six people to El Salvador and Mexico in violation of a temporary restraining order. Some migrants had been taken to a U.S. naval base in Djibouti.

Murphy suspended his decision for 15 days to allow the government to appeal. The case is likely headed to the Supreme Court, which ruled in the administration's favor in an earlier phase of the dispute last year.

President Trump delivers his State of the Union address, but a record 32 Democratic lawmakers boycotted - an unprecedented number. Senator Chris Van Hollen: "Trump is marching America towards fascism, and I refuse to normalize his shredding of our Constitution and democracy."

Significant symbolic gesture: the gold medal-winning women's Olympic hockey team declined Trump's invitation to attend. Trump had said he would "have to invite the women too, or he'd be impeached" - but they declined. The men's team accepted.

A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll reveals that 6 in 10 Americans believe the country is worse off than last year, and a majority thinks the "state of the union" is not strong. Support for Trump's immigration agenda is "in free fall" after federal agents shot and killed two American citizens last month.

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, the first woman to hold that office, delivered the official Democratic response from Colonial Williamsburg, invoking the Founders' spirit of resistance to tyranny.

The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown enters its second week. As of 6:00 AM today, DHS implemented emergency measures: FEMA reduced to minimum life-saving operations, Global Entry suspended, all non-essential activities ceased. This is the third DHS shutdown during the 119th Congress.

Secretary Kristi Noem blamed Democrats, who are demanding stricter controls on ICE: mandatory identification for agents, judicial warrants to enter private property, ban on wearing masks. Republicans refuse these conditions.

A new Washington Post poll shows Trump at 60% disapproval ahead of his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Trump also called the Supreme Court justices who voted against his tariffs "unpatriotic and disloyal to our Constitution" - including Gorsuch and Barrett, whom he appointed.

Meanwhile, the new 10% tariffs imposed under the Trade Act of 1974 can only last 150 days without congressional approval. When asked why he didn't want to work with the legislative branch, Trump replied: "I don't have to. I have the right to do tariffs."

In a furious reaction to the Supreme Court ruling, President Trump attacked Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett - whom he himself appointed during his first term - calling them "a disgrace" and "an embarrassment to their families." The direct attack on the judiciary represents an unprecedented escalation in presidential rhetoric against the judicial branch.

Hours after the ruling, Trump signed a new executive order imposing 15% global tariffs on all imports, effectively circumventing the Court's decision using other legal authorities. He also suggested the administration does not plan to refund companies that paid the tariffs ruled illegal: "I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years."

The ruling has produced "enormous cracks" in Republican Party unity, with many members of Congress breathing a sigh of relief at the end of IEEPA tariffs. Meanwhile, companies around the world have lined up for refunds, though trade lawyers warn the process will be chaotic.

International reactions were immediate: South Korea called an emergency ministerial meeting, China welcomed the decision, and Mexico is assessing the implications. But with the new 15% tariffs, economists warn that "nothing will change" for American consumer prices.

In a landmark ruling, the United States Supreme Court determined 6-3 that President Trump's use of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) to impose tariffs is unlawful. The majority opinion, written by Chief Justice John Roberts and joined by Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett and Jackson, represents a monumental defeat for the president.

Roberts wrote: "Based on two words separated by 16 others in IEEPA—'regulate' and 'importation'—the President asserts the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time. Those words cannot bear such weight. IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs or duties."

The Learning Resources v. Trump decision could force the government to refund over $175 billion already collected. Justice Kavanaugh, in his dissent, warned that the refund process will be "a mess." Thomas and Alito voted with the minority.

Trump immediately signaled a "Plan B," suggesting he will use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs. But the ruling establishes a fundamental principle: the power to tax belongs to Congress, not the president. It's a victory for the separation of powers described in the book.

At the first official Board of Peace meeting, Trump announced that the US will contribute $10 billion, while 9 other countries pledged $7 billion for Gaza reconstruction. Five nations (Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Albania) will send troops for a 20,000-strong stabilization force, with Indonesia contributing 8,000 soldiers.

But it was another Trump statement that raised alarms: "Someday I won't be here, the United Nations will be. I think the UN is going to be much stronger. The Board of Peace is going to almost be looking over the United Nations and making sure it runs properly." The statement confirms fears that the Board is designed to undermine the existing international order.

Meanwhile, DHS issued a memo authorizing the arrest and indefinite detention of refugees who have not yet obtained a green card, for "rescreening." The policy puts tens of thousands of people who entered during the Biden administration at risk. For fiscal year 2026, Trump set a historic low ceiling of just 7,500 refugees, with priority for white South Africans.

Today February 20 the Supreme Court is expected to rule on Trump's IEEPA tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts called the tariffs "an imposition of taxes on Americans," which "has always been the core power of Congress." If the Court invalidates them, the government will have to refund over $130 billion already collected.

More than 400 judges across the United States have ruled at least 4,421 times since October that the Trump administration is detaining immigrants unlawfully, according to a Reuters analysis. Courts have repeatedly found that the administration is "ignoring longstanding legal interpretations that mandate the release of many people who are taken into immigration custody if they post a bond."

The data contradicts administration claims: less than 14% of nearly 400,000 immigrants arrested by ICE in Trump's first year back had charges or convictions for violent criminal offenses, according to an internal DHS document obtained by CBS News. Public support for deportations has dropped from 59% at the start of the term to 46% now.

Meanwhile, tomorrow February 19 the first official meeting of the Board of Peace will be held at the "Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace" - the international organization created by Trump as a de facto alternative to the UN. The Board's charter grants the United States - and Trump personally - exclusive veto power over all decisions, unlike the UN Security Council where five nations share this right.

No major European ally has joined. An expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations called the organization "a top-down project to assert Trump's control over global affairs." Netanyahu will meet Trump at the White House today, but Israel has not yet signed the charter.

President Trump announced on Truth Social that his new "Board of Peace" will meet on February 19 at the US Institute of Peace in Washington - which Trump has renamed after himself. The institute, founded by Congress in 1984 as an independent federal agency for conflict prevention, is now the "Trump Institute of Peace."

The gesture exemplifies the cult of personality described in the book: the overlap between the leader's figure and state institutions, typical of authoritarian regimes.

Meanwhile, an investigation published February 15 reveals that at least 32 children entered foster care over the past year after their parents were detained or deported by ICE. Data comes from seven states: four toddlers ages 1 to 3 in Vermont (in custody for at least three months), 10 in Kansas, at least 9 in Maryland, and four each in Idaho and Virginia.

The actual number is likely much higher: the federal government lacks comprehensive data. With a record 71,000 immigrants in detention, the Trump administration has redefined what "family separation" means. Shaina Simenas of the Young Center: "It's definitely a huge problem. We work with families who were separated before under the first Trump administration and have now experienced a second family separation."

President Trump wrote on Truth Social: "There will be Voter ID for the Midterm Elections, whether Congress approves it or not!" The statement explicitly threatens to circumvent Congress using executive orders, a practice the book describes as a hallmark of authoritarian drift.

Constitutional scholars have expressed concern about the implications. Voter ID requirements imposed through executive action would bypass the traditional legislative process and could disproportionately affect minorities and low-income voters.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court announced it will rule on the legality of emergency tariffs by February 20, in a case that could set important precedents on the limits of executive power.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spoke on the Senate floor describing ICE as having become "a rogue force" operating without adequate congressional oversight. Schumer denounced how the agency "acts with impunity, without transparency or accountability."

Meanwhile, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat who has governed a deep-red state since 2019, called President Trump "anti-democracy" in a speech in Lexington. Beshear said: "What we're seeing is not normal governance. It's an attempt to concentrate power in ways the Founders would never have accepted."

The attacks on Trump came as the Republican-controlled House approved an additional $2 billion for ICE operations, despite criticism that the agency is exceeding its constitutional mandate.

At the 62nd Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that the rules-based world order "no longer exists" and that "a deep divide has opened between Europe and the United States." However, Merz also emphasized that "in the era of great-power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone."

Merz revealed he has held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on joining Paris' nuclear deterrence program, showing how some European countries don't want to rely on the US nuclear umbrella anymore.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that transatlantic ties faced a "defining moment": "The Old World is gone, frankly, the world I grew up in, and we live in a new era in geopolitics." US Ambassador to the UN Mike Walz presented a "Make the United Nations Great Again" (MUNGA) hat to the panel.

The Munich Security Report 2026, titled "Under Destruction," describes a world that has entered an era of "wrecking-ball politics." Transatlantic relations plunged further after Trump stepped up threats to annex Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark.

The Trump administration revealed a $38.3 billion plan to convert warehouses into immigrant detention centers, according to planning documents obtained by Bloomberg and the Washington Post. The figure exceeds the annual budgets of 22 US states.

The plan envisions an unprecedented expansion of the immigrant detention system, which officials say will "streamline operations and speed deportations." The number of ICE detainees has reached a historic record of 73,000, an 84% increase from January 2025.

Meanwhile, DHS announced the end of Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota. Border Czar Tom Homan called the operation a success, saying "Minnesota is now less of a sanctuary state for criminals." Over 4,000 undocumented immigrants have been apprehended since the operation began.

Governor Tim Walz said he is "cautiously optimistic" following the announcement, while Democrats criticized the administration for continuing to fund ICE and CBP even during the DHS shutdown.

Chief US District Judge James E. Boasberg ordered the Trump administration to facilitate the return to the United States of 137 Venezuelans illegally deported to El Salvador last March under the Alien Enemies Act, a wartime law.

The migrants had been sent to the notorious Center for Terrorism Confinement (CECOT) in El Salvador, accused of being members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The judge ruled the deportation had violated due process.

In his ruling, Boasberg wrote that the government's "responses essentially told the Court to pound sand." The judge warned that otherwise "the Government could simply remove people from the United States without providing any process and then, once they were in a foreign country, deny them any right to return for a hearing."

DHS responded by attacking the judge: "This case is no longer about the facts or law, but about Judge Boasberg's crusade to stop President Trump from doing the will of the American People." The government must pay for air travel for those who choose to return by February 27.

The House of Representatives passed a resolution to cancel Trump's tariffs on Canada with 219 votes in favor and 211 against. Six Republicans voted with Democrats: Thomas Massie (Kentucky), Don Bacon (Nebraska), Kevin Kiley (California), Jeff Hurd (Colorado), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania), and Dan Newhouse (Washington).

During the vote, Trump threatened dissenters on his Truth Social platform: "Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!" A classic example of authoritarian intimidation against members of his own party.

Rep. Jeff Hurd explained his choice: "I looked at the Constitution, I looked at what was in the best interest of my district, and I took the vote." Rep. Bacon posted that "tariffs have been a 'net negative' for the economy and are a significant tax that American consumers, manufacturers, and farmers are paying."

Even though the Senate has already passed a similar measure, Trump can veto it - and the House did not reach the two-thirds majority needed to override. However, this vote represents a rare crack in party discipline and an attempt by Congress to reassert its constitutional powers over trade.

Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin today formalized the revocation of the 2009 "endangerment finding," the Obama-era scientific declaration that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health. The White House called it "the largest deregulatory action in American history," claiming it will save "$1.3 trillion in crushing regulations."

The endangerment finding was the legal foundation for nearly all climate regulations under the Clean Air Act: vehicle emissions standards, power plant regulations, and other pollution sources. Its revocation eliminates the legal basis for fighting climate change at the federal level.

The decision directly defies established science. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recently reaffirmed that the 2009 findings were "accurate, have stood the test of time, and are now reinforced by even stronger evidence." The Supreme Court upheld the finding in 2007 (Massachusetts v. EPA) and declined to revisit it as recently as 2023.

Senator Chuck Schumer called it "a corrupt giveaway to Big Oil, plain and simple." Ironically, Elon Musk's Tesla wrote to the EPA in September urging it to uphold the endangerment finding. This action represents the dismantling of environmental protections that have stood for nearly two decades, all in the name of "deregulation."

Trump's "big, beautiful bill" and other administration policies are driving a $1.4 trillion increase in the projected federal budget deficit over the next decade, according to the latest estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035 are forecast to total $23.1 trillion. This data contradicts the administration's narrative about fiscal responsibility and the "savings" achieved through DOGE and public spending cuts.

The discrepancy between savings rhetoric and the reality of increasing deficits illustrates a typical pattern of authoritarian populism: promises of efficiency that mask policies benefiting certain groups at the expense of long-term fiscal sustainability.

California, Colorado, Illinois, and Minnesota filed suit today to block the administration from cutting hundreds of millions in public health grants. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) told Congress on Monday it planned to withhold about $600 million in grant funding from these states.

The four states' attorneys general argue the cuts are retaliation for the states' opposition to Trump's immigration crackdown. This is an explicit case of using federal power to punish political opponents.

This pattern of retaliation against "blue" states that resist administration policies represents a significant escalation: federal public health funds are being weaponized for political purposes, putting citizens' health at risk for purely political reasons.

A Washington D.C. grand jury refused the Justice Department's request to indict six Democratic lawmakers - including Senators Mark Kelly (Arizona) and Elissa Slotkin (Michigan) - who had posted a video urging military members to "refuse illegal orders." All six served in the military or intelligence agencies.

The DOJ had sought to charge them under 18 U.S.C. § 2387, a law that threatens up to 10 years in prison for anyone who "advises, counsels, urges, or causes insubordination, disloyalty, mutiny, or refusal of duty by any member of the military." Trump had called the lawmakers "traitors" who committed "sedition at the highest level" and "should be in jail," even suggesting they should be executed.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis criticized the DOJ's attempt: "Political lawfare waged by either side undermines America's criminal justice system. Thankfully in this instance, a jury saw the attempted indictments for what they really were."

It is highly unusual for grand juries to decline indictments, but the DOJ has struggled with grand juries in recent months, especially in politically charged cases. This case exemplifies the attempt to weaponize the justice system against political opponents - and its limits when it encounters democratic institutions.

According to a new NBC News poll, support for Trump's immigration agenda is in "free fall" after federal agents shot and killed two Americans last month. 67% of Americans say ICE's tactics have gone "too far," while only 23% consider them appropriate.

The numbers are striking: 49% strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of border security and immigration, up from 38% last summer and 34% in April. Trump's overall approval dropped to 39% (from 42% in December), while only 34% approve of ICE. 65% believe the country is on the wrong track.

Nearly 3 in 4 Americans want changes to ICE: 43% want it reformed, 29% want it abolished, and only 29% want to keep it in its current form. Immigration policies are also fracturing the Republican base, especially among those who identify more with the Republican Party than with the MAGA movement.

This dramatic collapse in support demonstrates that there are limits to public acceptance of policies perceived as excessive - a key element for understanding the resilience of democracies even under authoritarian pressure.

Ghislaine Maxwell, sentenced to 20 years for conspiring with Jeffrey Epstein to abuse minors, sent a message to Trump during her virtual deposition before the House Oversight Committee: if the president were to grant her clemency, she would "clear his name" of any wrongdoing as it pertains to Epstein.

Maxwell's lawyer made this extraordinary overture during the hearing. Maxwell invoked the Fifth Amendment, refusing to answer questions. Separately, members of Congress were able to begin reviewing unredacted versions of the Epstein files.

The proposed exchange — clemency in return for favorable statements — exemplifies the transformation of presidential pardon power into an instrument of personal protection, a pattern described in the book. The offer comes as Trump has already granted pardons to January 6 rioters and threatened to pardon political allies facing criminal proceedings.

Less than 14% of nearly 400,000 immigrants arrested by ICE in Trump's first year back in the White House had charges or convictions for violent criminal offenses, according to an internal Homeland Security Department document obtained by CBS News.

The data contradicts the administration's narrative justifying large-scale enforcement operations as necessary to remove "dangerous criminals." The vast majority of those arrested had no record of violent crimes.

Meanwhile, an immigration judge ruled last month that the Homeland Security Department had not met its burden of proving that Tufts University PhD student Rumeysa Ozturk was removable, and terminated proceedings against her. Ozturk was arrested last year as part of the Trump administration's targeting of pro-Palestinian campus activists.

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) — the federal agency responsible for election security — has been systematically dismantled by the Trump administration. The result: states are left alone to face cyber threats to the electoral process.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes declared: "Right now, we are effectively flying blind." His Minnesota counterpart Steve Simon added: "We do not have a sense of whether we can rely on CISA for these services as we approach a big election year in 2026."

The numbers are striking: in February 2025, CISA froze all election security activities; DOGE cut approximately 130 employees, including election security advisers. The administration's budget proposes eliminating the Election Security Program entirely — 14 positions and $39.6 million. California's Secretary of State office stated that CISA provided "little, if any, help" for their November special elections.

The pattern is exactly what the book describes: the systematic erosion of institutions that ensure free and secure elections. It is significant that Trump has recently called on Republicans to "nationalize voting" while simultaneously the federal agency that protected elections is being dismantled. The agency remains without an official director — Sean Plankey's nomination is stalled in the Senate.

The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a landmark ruling allowing the indefinite detention of immigrants without the right to bond hearings. In a 2-1 decision, conservative judges Edith Jones (Reagan appointee) and Kyle Duncan (Trump appointee) overturned hundreds of lower court rulings.

The numbers are striking: according to Politico, at least 360 federal judges had rejected the Trump administration's detention policy in over 3,000 cases. Only 27 judges had supported it in approximately 130 cases. Yet, two judges on a single circuit have now reversed this overwhelming consensus.

Judge Dana Douglas (Biden appointee), in her dissent, warned that the ruling could authorize detention without bond for two million people, some of whom have resided in the US for decades. Attorney General Pam Bondi celebrated the decision as "a significant blow against activist judges."

The ruling sets up a showdown at the Supreme Court. But the pattern is exactly what the book describes: judicial forum shopping toward conservative circuits, the systematic delegitimization of judges as "activists," and the use of the judicial system itself to consolidate policies that the majority of courts had rejected.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Pentagon will end all military training programs, fellowships, and certificates with Harvard University starting in the 2026-27 academic year. "Harvard is woke; The War Department is not," Hegseth stated.

"For too long, this department has sent our best and brightest officers to Harvard, hoping the university would better understand and appreciate our warrior class. Instead, too many of our officers came back looking too much like Harvard — heads full of globalist and radical ideologies that do not improve our fighting ranks."

Hegseth announced that similar programs with other Ivy League universities will be evaluated in the coming weeks. Other elite universities have already capitulated: Columbia agreed to pay $200 million to the federal government, Brown donated $50 million to workforce development programs.

The decision fits the pattern described in the book: the systematic attack on academic institutions as part of the Trump administration's culture war, with concrete consequences for research and the formation of American leadership.

President Trump posted an AI-generated video on Truth Social depicting former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama as apes, using a centuries-old racist trope. The "Lion King"-style video showed Trump as "King of the Jungle."

Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), the only Black Republican senator, reacted sharply: "Praying it was fake because it's the most racist thing I've seen out of this White House. The President should remove it." The White House initially defended the post, calling criticism "fake outrage," before deleting it hours later and blaming a "staffer."

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump refused to apologize: "I saw only a portion of the video and then passed it down to a staffer, who should have been responsible for watching the whole thing." He condemned the racist portion of the meme but insisted he made no mistake.

During the Obama presidency, similar images appeared only in fringe political spaces. When they crossed into the mainstream, they often resulted in resignations, firings, or campaign collapses. The fact that today they come directly from the White House — and that the president refuses to apologize — illustrates the erosion of democratic norms described in the book.

The Office of Personnel Management finalized the "Schedule Policy/Career" regulation (formerly Schedule F), which takes effect on March 8, 2026. The rule allows the Trump administration to reclassify up to 50,000 federal employees (2% of the public workforce), stripping them of civil service protections that have existed for over a century.

Reclassified employees will become "at-will employees" — terminable without the procedures required by Title 5 of the U.S. Code and without appeal rights. Whistleblower complaints will no longer go to the independent Office of Special Counsel, but will instead be handled internally by the employing agency.

The proposal received over 40,000 public comments in 45 days: 94% opposed, 5% in favor. OPM Director Scott Kupor stated: "People are free to agree or disagree with any of the priorities that the president has. The only impact is if their disagreement leads them to then try to actively thwart or undermine the execution of those priorities." Democracy Forward called the rule an attempt to "weaken more than a century of bipartisan civil service protections."

Schedule F was a central recommendation of Project 2025 and confirms the book's analysis: transforming the federal bureaucracy from a technical, nonpartisan institution into a tool of political loyalty represents one of the pillars of ongoing democratic erosion.

In its annual report, Human Rights Watch issued a stark warning: President Trump "has attacked key pillars of American democracy," citing the immigration crackdown, threats to voting rights, and other policies. Executive Director Philippe Bolopion stated that global democracy has regressed to 1985 levels by some metrics, with 72% of the world's population now living under autocratic regimes.

Russia, China, and the United States are all less free than twenty years ago. Bolopion stated that in 2026 "the fight for the future of human rights will play out most sharply in the U.S., with consequences for the rest of the world." He also noted that "many Western allies have chosen to stay silent on U.S. actions because they fear increasing tariffs and weakening alliances."

The report confirms the book's analysis: American democratic regression is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a global trend that sees democracies weakening while autocracy advances. The United States' position as a democratic model is compromised, with repercussions for the entire liberal international order.

The brothers of Renee Good, an American citizen killed by an ICE agent in Minneapolis in January, testified before congressional Democrats about concerns regarding the use of force by federal immigration enforcement. The testimony included text messages from an ICE agent commenting on a shooting: "5 shots, 7 holes." Other victims of violence by federal agents also shared their experiences.

Simultaneously, a federal judge ordered federal agents to refrain from using chemical or projectile munitions for 14 days near the ICE office in Portland. The DHS Inspector General is investigating use of force by ICE agents. In Minnesota, another federal judge ordered the release of refugees detained "without warrant or cause."

In a video circulating on social media, an ICE agent in Jersey City was filmed telling a resident: "I don't need a warrant, bro." The episode exemplifies the pattern described in the book: the Trump administration has repeatedly defied judicial orders and constitutional norms, setting a dangerous precedent for the rule of law.

In an interview with former FBI Director Dan Bongino (who resigned in December), President Trump declared that Republicans should "take over" and "nationalize voting" ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. "The Republicans should say 'we want to take over.' We should take over the voting... in at least 15 places. The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting. We have states that are so crooked and they're counting votes," Trump said, repeating false claims about the electoral process.

The U.S. Constitution gives states the authority to conduct federal elections, subject to laws passed by Congress. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer responded sharply: "'We want to take over, the Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.' Does Donald Trump need a copy of the Constitution? What he is saying is outlandishly illegal."

The statement confirms the pattern described in the book: Trump has long rejected the idea that Americans settle their differences at the ballot box. On the anniversary of the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack, Trump briefly floated the idea of canceling future U.S. elections, stating he was so impressed with himself and his record that "when you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election."

President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh, 55, Stanford professor and former Federal Reserve governor (2008-2009), as Jerome Powell's successor. Warsh will take office on May 15. An economist with classical Republican sympathies, far from MAGA culture, Warsh was among the most cautious Board members during the Lehman crisis in implementing expansionary policies.

The nomination comes after weeks of tension. Trump wanted lower interest rates at any cost ahead of the midterm elections, but the DOJ criminal investigation into Powell — over Fed headquarters renovation costs — paradoxically forced the White House into an "orthodox" choice. In a video, Powell accused the administration of trying to eliminate Fed independence, risking a new wave of inflation.

Among the defeated rivals: Chris Waller (St. Louis Fed governor), Rick Rieder (Blackrock), and Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser and frontrunner until a few weeks ago. Family ties also weighed in: Warsh is married to Jane Lauder, daughter of billionaire Roland Lauder — Trump's classmate at Wharton and holder of lithium mining concessions in Ukraine. Markets welcomed the choice, with an immediate dollar recovery.

President Trump threatened 50% tariffs on all aircraft sold in the US from Canada, escalating the trade war with the northern neighbor. The move is retaliation for Canada's refusal to certify Gulfstream Aerospace jets.

Trump also threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian products should Ottawa conclude a trade deal with China. Bombardier shares plummeted 7%.

According to the Tax Foundation, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represent the largest tax increase since 1993, costing the average American household $1,300 in 2026.

Minnesota's chief federal district judge, Patrick Schiltz, ruled that ICE violated at least 96 court orders since the beginning of January 2026. The ruling comes amid Operation Metro Surge, described by DHS as the largest immigration enforcement operation ever conducted.

Over 2,000 ICE agents and 1,000 Border Patrol agents have been deployed in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. The operation has caused hundreds of schools and businesses to close.

The number of ICE detainees reached a historic record of 73,000, an 84% increase from January 2025.

One year after wildfires devastated Los Angeles, destroying tens of thousands of homes, President Trump signed an executive order transferring permitting authority to the federal government, bypassing state and local authorities.

The order allows builders to "self-certify" compliance with standards, rather than following normal approval processes. FEMA must also verify within 60 days California's use of mitigation funds.

Governor Gavin Newsom called the order "useless," accusing the administration of failing to deliver the $34 billion in federal aid requested.

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that the DOJ investigation into alleged abuses during the Obama and Biden administrations could conclude in 2026. The inquiry treats alleged violations not as isolated incidents but as part of a "conspiracy."

A grand jury was convened in Fort Pierce, Florida, starting January 12, 2026. Former CIA Director John Brennan is among those involved.

Simultaneously, the DOJ is suing Minnesota and 24 other states - all lost by Trump in 2020 - to obtain access to unredacted voter rolls. A federal judge in California dismissed the request as "unprecedented and illegal."

In temperatures of 10 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, tens of thousands marched through downtown Minneapolis in the largest day of protest against Operation Metro Surge. Over 700 businesses closed in solidarity.

The protest follows the killing of Renee Good, a 37-year-old American citizen, by an ICE agent on January 7. Minneapolis Mayor publicly ordered ICE to "get out of the city."

Vice President JD Vance responded by announcing the deployment of over 10,000 additional ICE agents nationwide.

NPR published an analysis of the first year of Trump's second presidency, concluding that the president "has presided over a sweeping expansion of executive power while eroding democratic norms." Many scholars call these developments "unprecedented in American history."

As of January 29, 2026, Trump has signed 234 executive orders, 57 memoranda, and 123 proclamations. The record for executive orders in any single 21st century term has been surpassed.

The administration and its supporters counter that the Constitution provides for precisely this type of "muscular presidency" and that voters gave him a mandate for radical changes.

Inside Higher Ed published an assessment of Trump's second presidency impact on universities: over 4,000 federal grants have been terminated, affecting more than 600 institutions in all states. Total cuts range between $6.9 and $8.2 billion.

The administration proposed 40% cuts to NIH budget ($18 billion) and 50% to the National Science Foundation. Experts estimate these cuts will cost the American economy between $10-16 billion annually in lost economic output.

Several elite universities, including Columbia and Northwestern, reached settlements with the government to restore funding, yielding on some internal policies.

One year after pardons were granted to Capitol attack convicts, at least 17 pardoned individuals have been rearrested, indicted, or convicted of other crimes, including violent offenses and threats to public officials.

Six of the pardoned are accused of child sex crimes; five of illegal weapon possession. Zachary Alam, described by prosecutors as "one of the most violent" that day, was arrested for home invasion less than five months after his pardon.

Attorney Mark McCloskey has filed compensation claims for about 400 former rioters, some seeking millions of dollars for "political persecution."

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was formally dismantled in November 2025, with its functions transferred to the Office of Personnel Management. But the legacy remains controversial.

According to the Cato Institute, DOGE "had no noticeable effect on the trajectory of spending" but "did help engineer the largest peacetime workforce reduction on record." Federal employees dropped from 3.015 million to 2.744 million (-9%).

Claimed savings of $215 billion are far from the initially promised $2 trillion. New controversies emerged over improper sharing of sensitive Social Security data with external groups.

The Supreme Court upheld 6-3 the block on deploying Illinois National Guard troops in Chicago as sought by the Trump administration. This is one of the first occasions where the Court directly opposes the president.

The ruling in Trump v. Illinois establishes that a president can only federalize the National Guard in rare circumstances where the Posse Comitatus Act allows military use for domestic law enforcement.

The Court will still rule on crucial cases: birthright citizenship, tariffs, and the attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve.

The book "Democracy in Reverse - The United States After the Second Trump Presidency" by Pierpaolo Marturano is published by Core Matrix Edizioni, offering a structural analysis of the American democratic crisis.

The volume traces the historical roots of the crisis, analyzes Trump's role as a systemic catalyst, and examines the ongoing institutional transformations: from the politicization of federal agencies to the erosion of the separation of powers.