Chronicle of the Crisis

The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a landmark ruling allowing the indefinite detention of immigrants without the right to bond hearings. In a 2-1 decision, conservative judges Edith Jones (Reagan appointee) and Kyle Duncan (Trump appointee) overturned hundreds of lower court rulings.

The numbers are striking: according to Politico, at least 360 federal judges had rejected the Trump administration's detention policy in over 3,000 cases. Only 27 judges had supported it in approximately 130 cases. Yet, two judges on a single circuit have now reversed this overwhelming consensus.

Judge Dana Douglas (Biden appointee), in her dissent, warned that the ruling could authorize detention without bond for two million people, some of whom have resided in the US for decades. Attorney General Pam Bondi celebrated the decision as "a significant blow against activist judges."

The ruling sets up a showdown at the Supreme Court. But the pattern is exactly what the book describes: judicial forum shopping toward conservative circuits, the systematic delegitimization of judges as "activists," and the use of the judicial system itself to consolidate policies that the majority of courts had rejected.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Pentagon will end all military training programs, fellowships, and certificates with Harvard University starting in the 2026-27 academic year. "Harvard is woke; The War Department is not," Hegseth stated.

"For too long, this department has sent our best and brightest officers to Harvard, hoping the university would better understand and appreciate our warrior class. Instead, too many of our officers came back looking too much like Harvard — heads full of globalist and radical ideologies that do not improve our fighting ranks."

Hegseth announced that similar programs with other Ivy League universities will be evaluated in the coming weeks. Other elite universities have already capitulated: Columbia agreed to pay $200 million to the federal government, Brown donated $50 million to workforce development programs.

The decision fits the pattern described in the book: the systematic attack on academic institutions as part of the Trump administration's culture war, with concrete consequences for research and the formation of American leadership.

President Trump posted an AI-generated video on Truth Social depicting former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama as apes, using a centuries-old racist trope. The "Lion King"-style video showed Trump as "King of the Jungle."

Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), the only Black Republican senator, reacted sharply: "Praying it was fake because it's the most racist thing I've seen out of this White House. The President should remove it." The White House initially defended the post, calling criticism "fake outrage," before deleting it hours later and blaming a "staffer."

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump refused to apologize: "I saw only a portion of the video and then passed it down to a staffer, who should have been responsible for watching the whole thing." He condemned the racist portion of the meme but insisted he made no mistake.

During the Obama presidency, similar images appeared only in fringe political spaces. When they crossed into the mainstream, they often resulted in resignations, firings, or campaign collapses. The fact that today they come directly from the White House — and that the president refuses to apologize — illustrates the erosion of democratic norms described in the book.

The Office of Personnel Management finalized the "Schedule Policy/Career" regulation (formerly Schedule F), which takes effect on March 8, 2026. The rule allows the Trump administration to reclassify up to 50,000 federal employees (2% of the public workforce), stripping them of civil service protections that have existed for over a century.

Reclassified employees will become "at-will employees" — terminable without the procedures required by Title 5 of the U.S. Code and without appeal rights. Whistleblower complaints will no longer go to the independent Office of Special Counsel, but will instead be handled internally by the employing agency.

The proposal received over 40,000 public comments in 45 days: 94% opposed, 5% in favor. OPM Director Scott Kupor stated: "People are free to agree or disagree with any of the priorities that the president has. The only impact is if their disagreement leads them to then try to actively thwart or undermine the execution of those priorities." Democracy Forward called the rule an attempt to "weaken more than a century of bipartisan civil service protections."

Schedule F was a central recommendation of Project 2025 and confirms the book's analysis: transforming the federal bureaucracy from a technical, nonpartisan institution into a tool of political loyalty represents one of the pillars of ongoing democratic erosion.

In its annual report, Human Rights Watch issued a stark warning: President Trump "has attacked key pillars of American democracy," citing the immigration crackdown, threats to voting rights, and other policies. Executive Director Philippe Bolopion stated that global democracy has regressed to 1985 levels by some metrics, with 72% of the world's population now living under autocratic regimes.

Russia, China, and the United States are all less free than twenty years ago. Bolopion stated that in 2026 "the fight for the future of human rights will play out most sharply in the U.S., with consequences for the rest of the world." He also noted that "many Western allies have chosen to stay silent on U.S. actions because they fear increasing tariffs and weakening alliances."

The report confirms the book's analysis: American democratic regression is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a global trend that sees democracies weakening while autocracy advances. The United States' position as a democratic model is compromised, with repercussions for the entire liberal international order.

The brothers of Renee Good, an American citizen killed by an ICE agent in Minneapolis in January, testified before congressional Democrats about concerns regarding the use of force by federal immigration enforcement. The testimony included text messages from an ICE agent commenting on a shooting: "5 shots, 7 holes." Other victims of violence by federal agents also shared their experiences.

Simultaneously, a federal judge ordered federal agents to refrain from using chemical or projectile munitions for 14 days near the ICE office in Portland. The DHS Inspector General is investigating use of force by ICE agents. In Minnesota, another federal judge ordered the release of refugees detained "without warrant or cause."

In a video circulating on social media, an ICE agent in Jersey City was filmed telling a resident: "I don't need a warrant, bro." The episode exemplifies the pattern described in the book: the Trump administration has repeatedly defied judicial orders and constitutional norms, setting a dangerous precedent for the rule of law.

In an interview with former FBI Director Dan Bongino (who resigned in December), President Trump declared that Republicans should "take over" and "nationalize voting" ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. "The Republicans should say 'we want to take over.' We should take over the voting... in at least 15 places. The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting. We have states that are so crooked and they're counting votes," Trump said, repeating false claims about the electoral process.

The U.S. Constitution gives states the authority to conduct federal elections, subject to laws passed by Congress. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer responded sharply: "'We want to take over, the Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.' Does Donald Trump need a copy of the Constitution? What he is saying is outlandishly illegal."

The statement confirms the pattern described in the book: Trump has long rejected the idea that Americans settle their differences at the ballot box. On the anniversary of the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack, Trump briefly floated the idea of canceling future U.S. elections, stating he was so impressed with himself and his record that "when you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election."

President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh, 55, Stanford professor and former Federal Reserve governor (2008-2009), as Jerome Powell's successor. Warsh will take office on May 15. An economist with classical Republican sympathies, far from MAGA culture, Warsh was among the most cautious Board members during the Lehman crisis in implementing expansionary policies.

The nomination comes after weeks of tension. Trump wanted lower interest rates at any cost ahead of the midterm elections, but the DOJ criminal investigation into Powell — over Fed headquarters renovation costs — paradoxically forced the White House into an "orthodox" choice. In a video, Powell accused the administration of trying to eliminate Fed independence, risking a new wave of inflation.

Among the defeated rivals: Chris Waller (St. Louis Fed governor), Rick Rieder (Blackrock), and Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser and frontrunner until a few weeks ago. Family ties also weighed in: Warsh is married to Jane Lauder, daughter of billionaire Roland Lauder — Trump's classmate at Wharton and holder of lithium mining concessions in Ukraine. Markets welcomed the choice, with an immediate dollar recovery.

President Trump threatened 50% tariffs on all aircraft sold in the US from Canada, escalating the trade war with the northern neighbor. The move is retaliation for Canada's refusal to certify Gulfstream Aerospace jets.

Trump also threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian products should Ottawa conclude a trade deal with China. Bombardier shares plummeted 7%.

According to the Tax Foundation, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represent the largest tax increase since 1993, costing the average American household $1,300 in 2026.

Minnesota's chief federal district judge, Patrick Schiltz, ruled that ICE violated at least 96 court orders since the beginning of January 2026. The ruling comes amid Operation Metro Surge, described by DHS as the largest immigration enforcement operation ever conducted.

Over 2,000 ICE agents and 1,000 Border Patrol agents have been deployed in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. The operation has caused hundreds of schools and businesses to close.

The number of ICE detainees reached a historic record of 73,000, an 84% increase from January 2025.

One year after wildfires devastated Los Angeles, destroying tens of thousands of homes, President Trump signed an executive order transferring permitting authority to the federal government, bypassing state and local authorities.

The order allows builders to "self-certify" compliance with standards, rather than following normal approval processes. FEMA must also verify within 60 days California's use of mitigation funds.

Governor Gavin Newsom called the order "useless," accusing the administration of failing to deliver the $34 billion in federal aid requested.

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that the DOJ investigation into alleged abuses during the Obama and Biden administrations could conclude in 2026. The inquiry treats alleged violations not as isolated incidents but as part of a "conspiracy."

A grand jury was convened in Fort Pierce, Florida, starting January 12, 2026. Former CIA Director John Brennan is among those involved.

Simultaneously, the DOJ is suing Minnesota and 24 other states - all lost by Trump in 2020 - to obtain access to unredacted voter rolls. A federal judge in California dismissed the request as "unprecedented and illegal."

In temperatures of 10 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, tens of thousands marched through downtown Minneapolis in the largest day of protest against Operation Metro Surge. Over 700 businesses closed in solidarity.

The protest follows the killing of Renee Good, a 37-year-old American citizen, by an ICE agent on January 7. Minneapolis Mayor publicly ordered ICE to "get out of the city."

Vice President JD Vance responded by announcing the deployment of over 10,000 additional ICE agents nationwide.

NPR published an analysis of the first year of Trump's second presidency, concluding that the president "has presided over a sweeping expansion of executive power while eroding democratic norms." Many scholars call these developments "unprecedented in American history."

As of January 29, 2026, Trump has signed 234 executive orders, 57 memoranda, and 123 proclamations. The record for executive orders in any single 21st century term has been surpassed.

The administration and its supporters counter that the Constitution provides for precisely this type of "muscular presidency" and that voters gave him a mandate for radical changes.

Inside Higher Ed published an assessment of Trump's second presidency impact on universities: over 4,000 federal grants have been terminated, affecting more than 600 institutions in all states. Total cuts range between $6.9 and $8.2 billion.

The administration proposed 40% cuts to NIH budget ($18 billion) and 50% to the National Science Foundation. Experts estimate these cuts will cost the American economy between $10-16 billion annually in lost economic output.

Several elite universities, including Columbia and Northwestern, reached settlements with the government to restore funding, yielding on some internal policies.

One year after pardons were granted to Capitol attack convicts, at least 17 pardoned individuals have been rearrested, indicted, or convicted of other crimes, including violent offenses and threats to public officials.

Six of the pardoned are accused of child sex crimes; five of illegal weapon possession. Zachary Alam, described by prosecutors as "one of the most violent" that day, was arrested for home invasion less than five months after his pardon.

Attorney Mark McCloskey has filed compensation claims for about 400 former rioters, some seeking millions of dollars for "political persecution."

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was formally dismantled in November 2025, with its functions transferred to the Office of Personnel Management. But the legacy remains controversial.

According to the Cato Institute, DOGE "had no noticeable effect on the trajectory of spending" but "did help engineer the largest peacetime workforce reduction on record." Federal employees dropped from 3.015 million to 2.744 million (-9%).

Claimed savings of $215 billion are far from the initially promised $2 trillion. New controversies emerged over improper sharing of sensitive Social Security data with external groups.

The Supreme Court upheld 6-3 the block on deploying Illinois National Guard troops in Chicago as sought by the Trump administration. This is one of the first occasions where the Court directly opposes the president.

The ruling in Trump v. Illinois establishes that a president can only federalize the National Guard in rare circumstances where the Posse Comitatus Act allows military use for domestic law enforcement.

The Court will still rule on crucial cases: birthright citizenship, tariffs, and the attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve.

The book "Democracy in Reverse - The United States After the Second Trump Presidency" by Pierpaolo Marturano is published by Core Matrix Edizioni, offering a structural analysis of the American democratic crisis.

The volume traces the historical roots of the crisis, analyzes Trump's role as a systemic catalyst, and examines the ongoing institutional transformations: from the politicization of federal agencies to the erosion of the separation of powers.